Canfax report

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Published: October 29, 2015

This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

Fed Cattle firm

Trade was too light to set a price trend, but improved Chicago cattle futures and a weaker loonie gave the Canadian market a stronger tone.

In light trade, U.S. cash prices were close to the previous week’s stronger levels. There was talk that U.S. feedlots are getting more current, but carcass weights continue at record levels.

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The yield estimates for wheat and soybeans were neutral to bullish, but these were largely a sideshow when compared with corn.

Canadian feedlots and packers were negotiating contract sales and showed little interest in the cash market.

Chicago live cattle futures rose a little, adding to the sharp gains the previous week.

Weight discounts for heavy carcasses were reported.

The Canadian cash-to-futures basis widened to about -$12.50.

Western Canadian fed slaughter for the four day week ending Oct. 17 totalled 28,278 head, down 19 percent from the previous week.

Slaughter is down seven percent this year, and exports are down 47 percent. Feedlot supplies are tightening, but packers are comfortably positioned.

Cows down

D1, D2 cows fell almost $4, marking the seventh consecutive week of lower prices.

D1, D2 cows ranged $105-$125 to average $112.60, and D3 ranged $90-$108 to average $96.80.

Prices will likely find a bottom within the next three weeks.

Alberta D1, D2 cows were trading at a $13 premium over U.S. utility cows.

Feeders stronger

The calf run is in full swing with the largest weekly auction volume of the year.

The western Canadian calf and feeder index closed $3.50-$4.50 stronger. The market appears to be pricing in a slight premium for December delivery calves.

Manitoba steer calves hold a premium over the Alberta market.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba 550 pound steers are trading $32-$37 over heifers of the same weight. Alberta steers are $28 over heifers.

In electronic sales, 850 lb. steers for February delivery were passed at $226 per cwt., even with a basis that is a bit stronger than the five year average

Weekly feeder exports totalled 1,626 head.

A few pre-conditioned calves arrived at commercial auctions but did not fetch premiums because volumes are too small to assemble load lots and the period since weaning is only one to two weeks.

U.S. beef rises

U.S. boxed beef rose with Choice at US$217.47, up $6.25, and Select at $209.87, up $2.64.

Weight gain on cattle in U.S. southern feedlots is expected to be poor because of wet pens as Hurricane Patricia dumped heavy rain in Texas and Oklahoma

Beef in U.S. cold storage in September was up six percent from August and up 31 percent from the previous year.

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