Fed prices steady
Fed cattle prices have remained steady since October, averaging in the low $240s per hundredweight over the past eight weeks. From annual highs of $264.47 per cwt., current fed prices have dropped by nine per cent. Last year for the same period they dropped six per cent.
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In the last decade, when fed prices peaked early in the first half of the year (2016, 2017, 2018 and 2022), fed prices tended to rally from November throughout year-end. This year, fed markets are following a similar trend, with annual highs in mid-year and declining through the end.
Dressed sales were reported from $403-$407 per cwt. delivered. All three western Canadian packers bought cattle. Light volumes of western Canadian fed cattle were also marketed south. These cattle will be priced off the five-area average with delivery in November.
The Alberta cash-to-futures basis was reported at -$20.76 per cwt., the second weakest basis in the last decade. For the week ending Oct. 19, Canadian fed cattle and cow exports to the U.S. totalled 12,551 head, 24 per cent higher than last year. Over the past three weeks, exports have consistently run more than 20 per cent above year ago.
Ontario fed steer and heifer prices traded around $2 per cwt., higher than the previous week, averaging in the mid $240s per cwt. The Ontario cash-to-futures basis was reported at -$22.06 per cwt., the weakest basis this year.
Fed prices typically pick up in the last few weeks of the year, but this year is following a similar pattern to last year, with prices softening toward the end of the year.
In the U.S., live trade in Texas and Kansas was at US$190 per cwt., $1 per cwt. either side of steady with the previous week. Live trade in Nebraska ranged from $188-$190 per cwt., steady to $2 per cwt. lower than the previous week, with dressed sales at $296 per cwt., $2-$4 per cwt. lower.
Last week’s U.S. slaughter estimate was 615,000 head.
U.S. steer carcass weights hit 960 pounds, 33 lb. heavier than the same week last year and 40 lb. heavier than the five-year average. Historically, steer carcass weights peak near the end of November.
Cow prices down
Butcher cow prices have come under pressure, dropping $10 per cwt. over the past four weeks. Averaging in the mid $160s per cwt., prices are at the lowest since late March. Alberta D2s averaged $166.89 last week and D3s averaged $155.48. Butcher bulls averaged $191.48.
Alberta cows went from a premium to the U.S. market to a $5+ per cwt. discount. While speculative feeder cow buying interest has improved, one major packer was not bidding on slaughter cows.
There could be a big flush of cows hitting the market in November. On the flip side of the coin, given historically strong calf prices and better feed/forage supplies than a year ago, cows that would routinely be culled due to age, lower production or temperament might be kept at the ranch as producers hope to get one more year out of them.
Western Canadian cow slaughter for the week ending Oct. 26 was 5,600 head, the largest since June.
Feeder prices rally
The calf market continues to hold up very well as auctions work through peak numbers. Alberta 550 lb. calf prices have rallied $24-$36 per cwt. over the past four weeks. Heifer calf prices established new record highs while steer prices are $5 per cwt. shy of highs set this summer.
Over the past two weeks, the steer/heifer calf (550 lb.) price spread has been below $40 per cwt., the narrowest since June 2023. This is surprising given the widest steer/heifer price spread usually occurs during the fourth quarter.
Many cow-calf producers have indicated weaning weights are 25-50 lb. heavier than last year, adding to their bottom line.
Last week, the forward delivery market was lightly tested. Alberta and Saskatchewan 850 lb. steers for February delivery traded on either side of $350 per cwt., fully steady with prices two weeks ago. Yearling volumes coming off grass have been larger than normal for this time of the year. Last year, Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. peaked in October. This is not expected this year. For the first three weeks in October, Canadian feeder cattle exports are down 5,000 head versus last year.
U.S. cutouts rise
In U.S. beef trade, Choice cutouts averaged US$317.60 per cwt. and Select climbed to $285.37.
This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattle Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.
