This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattle Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.
Fed prices strong
The fed market digested negative news last week: a U.S. packing plant fire in Liberal, Kansas; a bearish cattle on feed report; and older dairy cows in Texas and Kansas with avian influenza.
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Despite the negativity, it was a strong week for the western Canadian fed market. Heading into spring, cattle feeders tend to gain leverage over the packing segment.
Last week, dressed sales were reported at $400 per hundredweight delivered, $10/cwt higher than the previous week. Last week’s weighted average steer price closed at $238.55/cwt live, the highest since mid-July. Fed cattle prices are $10/cwt shy of record highs in June 2023.
Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis strengthened, going from -$20.59/cwt to -$11.42/cwt last week. With stronger basis levels, U.S. packer interest moderated and no sales to the U.S. were reported.
Based on U.S. weekly import data, Canadian fed cattle shipments to the U.S. over the previous four weeks averaged over 11,000 head per week, up 29 per cent compared to the same time last year.
Over the past two years, the first quarter market has been rather volatile. In 2023 and 2024, the dollar per head change from January lows to March highs has been over $330/head. This is huge for a margin-based business.
In Ontario, dressed sales were reported at $400/cwt delivered. Fed prices have been steady for the past seven weeks. The price spread between Eastern and Western Canada has narrowed significantly. Year to date eastern Canadian fed slaughter is the smallest in more than 20 years. Alberta fed basis levels historically strengthen from March to April. In 13 of the past 20 years, fed prices have followed this trend.
In the U.S., fed prices moved off record highs set the previous week. Last week, dressed sales in Iowa and Nebraska ranged from US$298-$300/cwt, $2-$4/cwt lower than the week before. Live sales in the north were at $188/cwt while Texas and Kansas were at mostly $186/cwt, $2/cwt weaker.
For the week ending March 16 , U.S. beef cow slaughter totaled just over 53,000 head, 12 per cent lower than last year. For the middle of March, this is the smallest slaughter since 2017.
Cow price steady
Last week marks the first time that Alberta D2 cows remained steady, trading at $165.36/cwt, after gaining each week since the beginning of the year. The five-year historical average between now and the seasonal peak around June would have prices increase by another 11.8 per cent, suggesting a potential peak around the mid $180s/cwt.
Last week D2 cows averaged $165.36 and D3s averaged $147.67 per cwt. Butcher bull prices reached a new record high at $175.67/cwt, trading $30/cwt higher compared to last year.
Prices are expected to gain momentum due to seasonal demand upticks during summer and tighter supplies.
Last week, the Alberta cow and bull price spread widened to $10.31/cwt, doubling from the previous week. Similarly, Ontario D2 cow prices hit a new record high at $151.40/cwt, trading $29/cwt higher than last year.
Feeder volume down
Feeder volumes in Alberta were down eight per cent from the previous week but up 35.8 per cent from the five-year average. Feeder prices experienced a widespread correction. Feeder futures last week were down across the board, affecting prices, with Alberta feeder steer prices softening by $4.42/cwt to $6.34/cwt and heifer prices softening $2.13/cwt to $6.02/cwt.
Uncertainty about moisture and grass conditions heading into April led grass operators to press the brake and wait.
Since the start of the year, the feeder market has been performing well with no hiccups. Looking at seasonality and historical trends, a price slowdown was anticipated sooner or later.
Lethbridge barley and corn prices were both up last week, with barley surging $10/tonne after trading sideways for several weeks, and Lethbridge corn up $4.33/tonne, reaching its highest price in four weeks.
For the week ending March 16 , feeder cattle exports to the U.S. totaled 3,669 head, up 20 per cent from last year. Year to date exports of 26,927 head are up five per cent from last year.
Cutout price eases
In U.S. beef trade, cutouts hit a ceiling, at least temporarily. Choice and Select both eased nearly two per cent lower. Choice averaged US$308.58 and Select averaged $298.43 per cwt.
