Canfax report

This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattle Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

Fed prices lower

It was a disappointing week for the western Canadian fed market. Both Ontario and U.S. fed prices were stronger last week, but western Canadian prices were steady to lower. Sale volumes were too light to establish a weighted average fed price.

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Dressed sales were reported from $360-$365 per hundredweight delivered, while live bids were reported around $217 per cwt. f.o.b. the feedlot. Most cattle on offer were passed.

The Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis was estimated at negative $18.75 per cwt. compared to the five-year average of negative $8.23 per cwt. With weak basis levels and negative feeding margins, many producers have been fighting the market, adding more weight to cattle.

U.S. packer interest was noted and bids were reported at US$175 per cwt. delivered, but no cash sales were confirmed. U.S. bids were at a sizable premium over local.

In Ontario, dressed sales were reported at $380 per cwt. delivered, $5 per cwt. higher than the previous week. Cattle were being booked for immediate delivery.

Over the past 20 years, there have been seven years in which first half lows have occurred in January (2008, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2022 and 2023). Over those seven years, the average increase from January lows to spring highs stands at 18 percent. Assuming lows have been established, an historical increase would put fed prices on track to peak in the mid-$250 per cwt. range.

In the United States, a stronger price tone was noted as last week progressed. Dressed sales in Iowa and Nebraska ranged from US$275-$277 per cwt., $3 per cwt. higher than the previous week.

Live sales in the northern feeding states were from $175-$177 per cwt., while sales in Texas and Kansas ranged from $174-$175, $2 per cwt. stronger.

Fed cattle prices are at the highest point since late November. January is traditionally a tough month for the butcher cow market. In 14 of the past 15 years, first half-of-year price lows have occurred in January. Over the past five years, the average price increase for butcher cows from January to February was 11 percent.

Cow prices rally

Alberta D2 cow prices are in their seasonal spring rally, up $3.33 per cwt. from the previous week, to $127.33 per cwt. Similarly, Alberta D3 cows were up $4.50 per cwt. from the previous week, to $113.48 per cwt. Alberta butcher bulls have softened $5.10 per cwt. to $147.30 per cwt., but historical trends suggest a potential increase in prices in the coming weeks.

Canadian slaughter volumes year to date are down eight percent from last year, with cow slaughter down 14 percent and bull slaughter up 25 percent on small volumes (646 head). Canadian fed slaughter is down seven percent with reductions for both steers and heifers, down nine percent and three percent, respectively.

Busy auction marts

Alberta auction volumes surged to 29,419 head last week, more than triple the volume of the previous week. Mid-January frigid temperatures postponed auction sales. However, when compared to the five-year average for the fourth week of January, volumes are flat.

That said, electronic sale volumes were 20 percent down compared to the previous week and 52 percent down from the same week last year.

Last week Alberta lightweight steers 400-500 pounds had the biggest increase across all weight categories, up $19 per cwt. from the previous week to $414.25 per cwt. Alberta 500-600 lb. steers put in their highest prices in 13 weeks, up $13.56 per cwt. to $386.13 per cwt. Alberta 800-900 lb. steers were up $6.78 per cwt. from the previous week to $297.53 per cwt.

Historically, heavyweight steers trade sideways for the first quarter, pick up in the third quarter and soften again in the fourth quarter.

In the East, Ontario 500-600 lb. steers were up $13.66 per cwt. from the previous week to $346.16 per cwt. Ontario 800-900 lb. steers were down $6 to $301.27 per cwt.

Canadian feeder export volumes for the week ending Jan.13 totalled 2,006 head, down five percent compared to last year. Year to date, exports at 3,369 head are up 14 percent from last year. Historically, the majority of feeder exports occur in the first quarter.