This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.
Light fed trade
Alberta direct cattle sales saw scattered light trade last week with dressed prices steady with the previous week at $390 per hundredweight delivered. A few deals included a premium for 70 percent AAA grades that helped firm the weighted average steer price to $233.70 per cwt.
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Looking back to the mid-year, monthly average steer prices slipped more than $5 per cwt. lower from July to August to $233.40 per cwt. Prices have generally trended sideways through September to now on good demand and manageable supplies.
U.S. buying interest was absent, despite the Alberta to Nebraska cash basis weakening to around -$19 per cwt. Year to date, western fed slaughter was down seven percent from the same week last year to 1,620,020 head.
Fed cattle-cow exports to the United States for the week of Sept. 30 were the third largest weekly exports seen this year at 12,564 head and was 20 percent larger than the same week last year. Year to date, fed cattle-cow exports were down one percent to 355,410 head.
Active Ontario steer trade was fully steady with the previous week at $395 per cwt. delivered. Light heifer trade was comparable with steers, but a weekly price trend was not established.
Fed cattle sale volumes from September to mid-November are typically ample after grilling season demand softens. However, over the past seven weeks, fed cattle sales trade volumes have trended lower than a year ago, and market-ready inventories are tight.
In the U.S., southern live prices firmed US$1-$2 per cwt. higher than the previous week, with sale reports from $183-$184 per cwt. Northern lives were $2-$3 per cwt. higher than the previous week at $185-$186.
Light dressed trade was generally $2 per cwt. higher than the previous week’s Nebraska rail average, with most sales at $292 per cwt. delivered.
Cow price stabilizes
Cows have been marketed ahead of schedule in some cases. With larger non-fed volumes in September than normally seen, it may pave the way for more manageable numbers over the next 30 to 45 days.
Following seven consecutive weeks of lower prices, the cow market found stability, trading $2-$3 per cwt. higher last week. D2s averaged $132.43, and D3s averaged $121.33 per cwt.
Though prices have seasonally trended lower, for the first half of October prices are still record high. Despite expecting more manageable numbers over the next few weeks, peak cow numbers are likely still ahead, suggesting fall price lows have not yet been established.
Heifers come to town
Two things continue to stand out compared to the past few years. First, the number of yearlings coming off grass and background yards has been surprisingly large for this time of the year. Second, heifer calf volumes remain much larger than normal. In some instances, heifer calves account for 50 percent of the sale volumes. Normally during the fall, calf run heifer calves make up 30 to 40 percent of total sale receipts.
In general, the tough spot on the market continues to be heifer calves. Over the past month, 550 lb. heifers have declined $27 per cwt., the largest decline out of all the weight classes. It is not uncommon to see heifer calf prices trend lower from September to October. Based off the five-year average, 550 lb. heifer calves usually bottom in early November.
On the flip side, the bright spot of the market has been lightweight steer calves as prices continue to hover near annual price highs. Last week, Saskatchewan-Manitoba steer and heifer calves were trading at a slight premium over the Alberta market.
Over the past four weeks (weeks ending Sept. 9 to 30) Canadian feeder cattle exports totalled 17,500 head, 155 percent higher than last year. For September, this is the largest feeder export volume seen since 2014.
Cut-out tug-of-war
In U.S. beef trade, buyers and sellers appeared to be in a tug-of-war of sorts last week as cut-out values oscillated US$300 per cwt. Neither player appeared to be willing to give up much ground. Packers have been running in the red and look to gain leverage on retailers, and retailers are feeling the heat from consumers. Choice cutouts closed the week at $301.19 per cwt. Select cutouts were steady at $275.02.
