This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.
Fed prices steady
Light Alberta cash trade developed ahead of the day for Truth and Reconciliation, with dressed prices fully steady with the previous week at $390 per hundredweight delivered. Weighted average steer prices closed the week fully steady at $232.80 per cwt.
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Following large heifer marketings last week, heifer trade was limited and a price trend was not established. All major packers procured cattle.
Western Canadian fed slaughter for the week ending Sept. 23 was 12 percent lower than the previous week at 40,909 head. Year to date, western fed slaughter was down seven percent from the same week last year to 1,537,404 head.
Western Canadian steer carcass weights continue to trend seasonally larger, up five pounds from the previous week to 943 lb., and were 26 lb. lighter than the same week last year.
Fed cattle/cow exports to the United States for the week of Sept. 16 realigned 47 percent larger than the previous four-day week to 13,250 head, the second largest export week this year, and was 57 percent larger than the same week last year. Year to date, fed cattle/cow exports were down three percent to 330,577 head.
Light Ontario cash trade developed from $392-$395 per cwt. delivered, with most reports steady with the previous week at $395.
Beef cutouts are expected to lose price momentum on seasonally softer beef demand heading toward Thanksgiving.
In the U.S. as of Sept. 28, southern live trade was reported steady with the previous week at US$183 per cwt. Northern live trade was steady to $1 per cwt. lower than the previous week at $184 per cwt. and dressed sales were steady to $2 per cwt. lower than the previous week’s Nebraska rail average.
U.S. steer carcass weights for the week ending Sept. 16 were eight lb. heavier than the previous week at 946 lb. and were 16 lb. lighter than a year ago.
Cow prices decline
Western Canadian cow prices have declined for 11 consecutive weeks, dropping $23 per cwt. Weakness has been noted in both the U.S. and Ontario markets, but to a lesser degree. Both U.S. and Ontario cow prices are trading roughly $3-$6 per cwt. shy of their annual high set this summer.
For September, more cows have been on offer than normally seen. Over the past four weeks, western Canadian cow slaughter is 27 percent higher than last year. From mid-August to mid-September, this is the second largest cow slaughter in the past 12 years.
Western Canadian packers have been active on cattle trading through the sale ring, but there has been a noticeable pullback in feeder cow demand. Averaging $131 per cwt., D2 cow prices are at the lowest point since April. D3s averaged $118.61 per cwt.
Alberta cow prices are trading at a $12 per cwt. discount against the U.S. utility cow market. If Alberta prices continue to slide, more cows are expected to be shipped south for slaughter. Butcher bulls traded $2 per cwt. stronger last week. Weekly Canadian bull exports to the U.S. totalled 1,236 head, the largest export volume this year.
Feeder upside limited
Further price upside for heavier weight feeders is limited. Based off the five-year average, 850 lb. steer prices historically peak in late September and trend low until the end of the year. The five-year average decline from fall highs to December lows is six percent.
Assuming annual highs are close, a historical decline would put 850 lb. steers on track to bottom around $310 per cwt.
Over the past three weeks, Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. have averaged 5,066 head per week compared to 1,832 per week last year.
Cutouts jumpy
In U.S. beef trade, to say that cutouts moved mostly sideways last week would understate recent activity. In June, Choice cutouts jumped to US$340 per cwt. This raised concerns of demand erosion, and the thought is that Choice cut-out values will need to drop below $300 per cwt. for demand to pick up again.
That price pressure was seen over the previous week and a half, as Choice cutouts have been trying to stay above $300 per cwt. They ended the week steady with last week at $301.51 per cwt. Select cutouts were down slightly to $277.44.
