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Canfax report

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Published: September 7, 2023

Weighted average steer prices trended steady with scant trade, closing the week at $231.76 per cwt. | File photo

This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

Few fed trades

Feedlots were not enthusiastic sellers last week, and cash market trade was limited. Light dressed trade saw prices steady to $2 per hundredweight lower than thin trade seen the previous week from $388-$390 per cwt. delivered. Light live trade was comparable from $230-$231.25 per cwt.

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Weighted average steer prices trended steady with scant trade, closing the week at $231.76 per cwt. Scattered light heifer trade was reported in a similar trade range, but a weekly price trend was not established.

Western Canadian fed slaughter for the week ending Aug. 26 eased three percent lower than the previous week to 41,871 head. Year-to-date western fed slaughter was down seven percent compared with the same week last year.

Year-to-date fed cattle/cow exports were down six percent from the same week last year, totalling 289,992 head.

Light Ontario dressed steer trade was fully steady with the previous week at $389 per cwt. delivered.

Fed market prices typically bottom in late August-early September as lacklustre post-Labour Day beef demand pressures cut-out values lower and back-to-school spending directs consumers to grind and cheaper competing meats.

Ample market-ready supplies are also typical in September, but strong prices this year have pulled fed cattle forward.

In three of the past five years (2018, 2021 and 2022), monthly fed prices have strengthened from August to September.

In the United States, light southern live trade was steady to $1 per cwt. lower than the previous week from US$178-$179 per cwt. Northern live sales were $1-$3 per cwt. lower from $182-$184. Dressed sales trended $2-$3 per cwt. lower than the previous week’s Nebraska average, with the bulk of trade at $290-$291 per cwt. delivered.

Total U.S. slaughter last week is estimated slightly larger than the previous week at 629,000 head and two percent smaller than year ago.

Cow prices decline

Alberta and Ontario cow prices have been moving in opposite directions. Alberta cow prices have declined $2.50 per cwt. over the past two weeks, while Ontario cow prices have advanced nearly $8 per cwt. and are currently $4 per cwt. shy of their highs set in early June.

The non-fed market is fighting an uphill battle because cow prices declined from August to September in 14 of the past 15 years. Over those 14 years, the average month-over-month decline stands at six percent. Using a seasonal decline, this would put prices on track to average in the $140 per cwt. area in September.

Last week, D2s averaged $147.93 and D3s averaged $132.43 per cwt.

With the fall calf run getting underway earlier than normal, more cows are expected to be on the market in September. Cow carcass weights usually peak in the spring and trend lower to the end of the year.

This trend is still relevant, but carcass weights have been slow to seasonally decline. Canadian cow carcass weights averaged 743 lb. For the second half of August, this is the second largest carcass weight on record.

More grain-fed cows could be entering the slaughter mix, keeping carcass weights elevated. Canadian bull export volumes to the U.S. totalled 1,127 head, the largest export volume seen this year.

Big steer-heifer spread

Over the past month, the largest price increase has been on light-weight calves from 300-400 lb., with prices advancing $40-$50 per cwt. Last week, the 850 lb. steer ($328.42 per cwt.) to heifer ($293.75 per cwt.) price spread was more than $34, the largest price spread on record.

During the second half of the year, August is traditionally when we see the largest steer-heifer price spread on heavier weight feeders. Looking at the calf market over the past three years, the average decline for a 6-weight steers from October to November stands at three percent. Based off electronic sales in August, western Canadian 600-699 lb. steers for October delivery averaged $366.17 per cwt., while November delivery prices were at $363.75. A similar price trend was observed in July.

Cutouts slightly lower

In U.S. beef trade, cutouts appear to have reached summer highs and were one percent lower last week. Choice averaged US$313.79 and Select averaged $289.25. An August peak in Choice cut-out values has occurred in 15 of the last 19 years.

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