(MarketsFarm) — The European Union will likely import more canola this year than previously thought, but the increase will likely come from Australia or Ukraine rather than Canada, according to updated projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The USDA raised its forecast for European rapeseed imports during the 2022-23 marketing year by 550,000 tonnes, to 6.525 million tonnes, in its latest Oilseeds report released March 8, citing “increased exports from Ukraine and Australia.”
The agency raised its forecast for Australian exports to 6.25 million tonnes, from 5.7 million in the February report, while increasing the Ukraine export forecast by 300,000 tonnes, to 2.1 million tonnes.
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Canadian canola production for 2022-23 was left unchanged at 19 million tonnes by the USDA, which compares with Statistics Canada’s estimate of 18.174 million tonnes. The USDA forecasts Canadian canola exports during the marketing year at 8.4 million tonnes, which would be down slightly from Agriculture Canada’s projection of 8.6 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, the USDA is working with a domestic usage number for Canadian canola of 10.45 million tonnes, which would be nearly a million tonnes above Agriculture Canada’s 9.5 million tonne estimate.
Total Canadian canola ending stocks for 2022-23 are forecast at 1.15 million tonnes by the USDA, which compares with the Agriculture Canada estimate of 800,000 tonnes. World canola carryout was estimated at 6.672 million tonnes.
