Canada’s Mexican beef export boom has ended.
For some months, while Mexico restricted imports of American beef because of the case of BSE found in Washington state in December, Canadian beef exports boomed.
Canfax reports that exports to Mexico were well above year ago levels until April.
Volumes started to decrease in March after Mexico first agreed to accept U.S. boneless product and dropped further when it expanded its list in April to include variety meats, veal and tallow.
Exports went from seven million pounds back down to one to two million lb., typical of the pre-BSE level. Cumulative exports for this year are up 116 percent from last year.
Read Also
Poilievre promises EV action and calls for canola compensation
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre promises EV action and calls for canola compensation
Canada’s beef exports to the United States have also seen some recent fluctuation.
Canfax reports that in February and March, exports to the United States were 11.8-14.05 million lb. per week, down 26-36 percent on a weekly basis from 2003, before BSE and border restrictions. Most of April saw a slight improvement to 13.6-15.4 million lb. of boneless beef moving across the border.
But then the R-CALF legal challenge of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s import regulations threw the market into chaos for a couple of weeks. Exports dipped as low as nine million lb. However, as Canadian Food Inspection Agency permits and regulatory issues became clear, boneless beef and trim exports into the U.S. started to climb again.
Canfax says the last two weeks of May had exports back up to 11-13 million lb.
Cumulative export volume to the U.S. since the beginning of the year is running 25 percent down from last year.
Turning to the grains market, the bearish June 10 USDA world supply and demand report pushed most grain prices down in the immediate aftermath. It estimated that world oilseed production would increase to a record 378.32 million tonnes for 2004-05, up 42.6 million tonnes or 13 percent from 2003-04.
USDA forecast Brazil’s 2004-05 soy crop at a record 66 million tonnes, up from 52.6 million this year, and Argentina’s crop at 39 million, up from 34 million.
But on June 14, the next trading opportunity due to the Ronald Reagan day of mourning, prices recaptured some lost ground.
Soybeans and other oilseed prices strengthened because American crushers were more active than expected, putting pressure on the current crop year’s ending stocks.
Hanging over the market was China’s dispute with Brazil over cargoes contaminated with seed treated with a fungicide for rust disease.
As of June 14, China had blacklisted almost all Brazilian shippers due to the dispute.
To try to restore trade, Brazil has implemented strict new tolerance levels for tainted seed.
Resolving this problem, and the larger issue of China’s financially strapped crushing industry, will be critical to 2004-05 oilseed prices.
USDA projected China’s 2004-05 soy imports at a strong 24 million tonnes, up from 19 million this season.
