Canada’s beef and veal exporters hope to increase exports this year by 11.3 percent to 458,000 tonnes, building on a 13.5 percent increase last year.
It is a goal rather than a prediction and is based on some optimistic assumptions.
The 2009 export goal, which the Canadian Beef Export Federation compiled in a survey of its members, assumes a dramatic 36,000 tonne increase in exports to Russia, compared to 2,731 tonnes last year.
It also assumes the federal government will successfully open access this year for Canadian beef in South Korea, which has been closed since 2003.
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The CBEF goal is to export 7,530 tonnes to Korea, even though the Korean government as recently as mid-March refused Canadian pleas and threats to give Canadian product the same access as what American and Australian beef receives.
The goal also assumes that exports to the United States will fall by only 5,700 tonnes to 311,000 tonnes, despite deep industry fears that country-of-origin labelling and the U.S. recession could profoundly affect the willingness of American packers and feeders to import Canadian cattle and calves and of American consumers to buy higher-priced meat, either foreign or domestic.
The survey assumes a small dip in U.S. sales this year and next and then a rebound by 2015.
However, industry and government officials worry that the impact on U.S. market access could be long lasting if the new U.S. administration follows through on threats to extend COOL proposals beyond the current rule, even if Canada launches its threatened World Trade Organization challenge.
The CBEF member survey suggested that exports to the U.S. would fall to 68 percent of Canadian exports this year from 77 percent in 2008.
Mexico is projected to remain Canada’s second largest customer, buying 54,000 tonnes, or almost 12 percent of total Canadian export in 2009.
Russia, according to the projections, will soar from a minor buyer last year to the third largest importer this year.
CBEF said total beef and veal sales will climb to almost one million tonnes in 2009, 54.2 percent of it sold into the domestic market. As recently as 2007, total sales were more than 30 percent higher at 1.32 million tonnes.
Domestic sales were more than 72 percent of the total in 2007 at 960,000 tonnes while exports, still reeling from post-BSE closed borders, were only 362,000 tonnes.
CBEF said the 2009 export goal was set after surveying 11 of its largest exporting members.
