100 MILE HOUSE, B.C. – The traditional market indicators for the beef industry no longer exist, says the head of research at Canfax.
“Our typical cattle cycle is difficult to follow right now,” said Andrea Brocklebank at the British Columbia Cattlemen’s Association annual meeting June 14 in 100 Mile House.
“We have broken so many records in the last couple of years but many of them, I don’t think we wanted to break,” she said.
Canada is in sync with the United States cycle, which is also in the herd liquidation phase because of drought and high feed costs. Both industries have an aging producer base reluctant to take on more risk.
Read Also
European wheat production makes big recovery
EU crop prospects are vastly improved, which could mean fewer canola and durum imports from Canada.
The Canadian herd has shrunk from a record high of 14.5 million head in 2006 to 13 million as of the latest January census. There are 4.98 million beef cows.
“We are still a million head above where we should be in terms of our total herd as compared to where we started in 2003,” she said.
There is excess feedlot capacity in both countries and competition for calves is increasing. Canada has exported about 300,000 feeders to the U.S. so far this year, an increase of about 65 percent from last year at the same time.
U.S. feeders have pen space and want to fill it before July 15.
The U.S. country-of-origin labelling law takes effect Oct. 1. Cattle arriving before July 15 would be considered American.
Canada marketed 3.5 million slaughter-ready cattle last year but killed only 2.7 million domestically. The rest were exported to the U.S. where processing costs are lower.
There was a record high cow slaughter at 755,000 head. The border opened Nov. 19, 2007, and for 2008, 100,000 to 150,000 cows may be exported.
Eastern Canada killed more dairy cows and exported more of them because they can prove they were born after March 1999 to fit U.S. import requirements.
Beef production in 2007 was 3.4 billion pounds. Of that, 2.7 billion lb. were sold domestically. Beef exports were at 362,000 tonnes and were valued at $1.24 billion. Most went to the U.S., but Canada also shipped to Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
