Farmers in parts of Australia are breathing easier because of heavy January rain, but the country is not yet home free.
Parts of western, southern and central Australia received 200 to 400 percent of normal rainfall in January. But other regions are suffering drought and terrible wildfires. News reports last weekend talked of grass fires in western Australia, one covering almost 30,000 acres and another covering 13,600 acres.
The Australian government has announced plans to spend $1 billion a year for 10 years to address water issues, including improved irrigation infrastructure in the Murray-Darling river basin, a key cropping zone in the country.
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Given the extreme drought of the past year, it would take torrential rain to make up the deficit.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that to remove the deficit by the end of April, rainfall over the next three months would need to be in the top 10 percent of the historical record over many areas, or at record high levels in some instances.
Australian farmers seed at about the same time of the year as Canadian farmers, but because they are in the Southern Hemisphere, they put in fall crops.
To view maps of recent rainfall and of the drought situation, check out the bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au/climate.
Forecasters say the El Nino behind Australia’s problems is weakening and the country should get back to a more normal precipitation situation in the coming crop year.
It is also dry in parts of India.
Rising temperatures across northern India in recent weeks are threatening wheat yields and output. Although more land was seeded to wheat and pulses last fall, production might not rise. Indian analysts say the country may be forced to import three to four million tonnes of wheat in 2007. Last year it imported six million tonnes.
Imports are a major reversal for India, which exported between three million and 5.7 million tonnes per year in the early part of the decade.
Meanwhile, forecasts for Brazilian soybean output are climbing thanks to regular rain. Analyst Celeres increased its outlook to 57 million tonnes this week, up from 56 million last month and 55 million last year.
Although soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina are expected to set production records, soybean prices on the Chicago futures exchange are steady to stronger as traders worry about the shift of acres to corn in the U.S.
A recent survey by U.S. marketing advisory service ProFarmer indicated that corn area could climb as high at 90 million acres, an increase of 12 million from last year, and soy could drop to 66 million, a loss of about 9.5 million acres.
The remaining three million acres or so would come out of spring wheat, cotton, rice and other crops.
