By Ros Krasny
WASHINGTON, June 11 (Reuters) – The United States is a month closer to bumper supplies of corn and soybeans, its major field crops, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday in a second look at the 2014-15 U.S. and world grain outlook.
Meanwhile, although the U.S. wheat crop is struggling, global supplies are on the rise. Following the report, Chicago wheat futures fell to their lowest level since Feb. 28.
Soybeans turned slightly higher on the smaller old-crop ending stocks, and corn prices sagged.
Read Also
ICE review: Canola corrects higher Wednesday
ICE canola futures were stronger on Wednesday, taking back Tuesday’s losses as the market continued to consolidate above the five-month…
U.S. winter wheat production for 2014 will be down 10 percent from a year ago at 1.38 billion bushels, down two percent from May.
USDA lowered its hard red winter wheat crop estimate but raised its forecast for soft red winter wheat, the variety traded in Chicago. The SRW crop will still be down 20 percent on the year.
The all-wheat crop of 1.942 billion bu. compares with a trade estimate of 1.964 billion and is down nine percent on the year, hurt by poor conditions in the southern and central Plains and the Pacific Northwest.
Global wheat supplies for 2014-15 were raised by 4.1 million tonnes, though, and projected ending stocks also rose. Crop estimates were raised for China, Russia, India and the EU, among others.
“We have plenty of world wheat and if we have production concerns in the U.S., the higher prices are taking care of that. When you’re the only one with significant production loss, it’s difficult to remain competitive in the world market,” said Shawn McCambridge, analyst at Jefferies Bache.
SOYBEAN SUPPLY SQUEAKER
Domestic soybean supplies will dwindle to a roughly two-week supply ahead of a forecast record large crop of 3.635 billion bu. and a spike in 2014-15 ending stocks.
USDA trimmed its 2013-14 soybean ending stocks forecast to 125 million bu., down five million from May, on a higher crush. Record high imports will help U.S. soybean crushers limp through to harvest.
Forecasts for old- and new-crop corn ending stocks were unchanged on Wednesday at 1.146 billion bu. and 1.726 billion bu. respectively.
USDA will not make survey-based production forecasts for corn and soybeans until August. Weekly updates show both crops in strong shape despite a late start to planting, suggesting high yields could be on tap.
“Conditions in the most recent crop progress report are the best in four years for the aggregated 18 reported states, and better than any time since 2007 for the Corn Belt,” USDA said.
World corn and coarse grain stocks are also on the rise. USDA increased its 2013-14 corn production estimates for Brazil and India.
USDA sharply raised its 2014-15 U.S. sugar stocks to use ratio to 15.8 percent from 9.1 percent in May, based on rising imports.
