By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada
Winnipeg, February 9 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market finished stronger on Thursday, due to speculative buying.
Gains in crude oil and Malaysian palm oil were supportive and canola is considered reasonably cheap compared to other oilseeds.
There are ideas that canola stocks could be tighter than realized.
“The recent stocks report indicated that supplies of canola are looking a little tight,” said a trader in Winnipeg. “The big unknown in canola is the quantity that’s still out in the field in Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan.”
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Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange suffered double-digit losses on Thursday after the release of new data from Statistics Canada….
However, losses in the US soy complex were bearish for values. The USDA’s monthly supply and demand report estimated US soybean stocks to hit 420 million bushels by the end of 2016/17. That was above the 409 million bushels projected by analysts.
The Canadian dollar was slightly stronger relative to its US counterpart, which made canola less attractive to foreign buyers.
Crush margins were slightly weaker on the day.
Milling wheat, barley and durum were untraded.
About 43,438 canola contracts traded on Thursday which compares with Wednesday when 44,842 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for about 29,040 of the contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were down by one to eight cents per bushel on Thursday, as the market reacted to the US Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand report.
The USDA left its soybean ending stocks forecast unchanged at 420 million bushels, which put some pressure on values as average trade guesses were for slightly tighter supplies.
However, world stocks were lowered to 80.4 million tonnes, from 82.3 million in January.
Weekly US soybean export sales of 971,000 tonnes were in line with expectations.
SOYOIL futures settled near unchanged on Thursday.
SOYMEAL futures were lower on Thursday, following soybeans.
CORN futures in Chicago were down by one to two cents per bushel on Thursday.
The USDA forecast US corn ending stocks for the current marketing year at 2.320 billion bushels, which was down slightly from the previous estimate of 2.355 billion and in line with trade expectations. World carryout, at 217.6 million tonnes was down from the January estimate of 220.98 million tonnes.
Weekly US corn exports of 971,000 tonnes were at the top end of trade guesses.
WHEAT futures in Chicago were up by nine to 11 cents per bushel on Thursday.
US and world wheat ending stocks estimates were revised lower in the USDA’s latest report. Total US wheat carryout was pegged at 1.139 billion bushels, which was down by nearly 50 million bushels from the previous report. World wheat ending stocks of 248.6 million tonnes were nearly five million tonnes tighter than the earlier estimate.
Weekly US wheat export sales of 527,300 tonnes came in above average trade estimates.
