By Terryn Shiells and Marney Blunt, Commodity News Service Canada
WINNIPEG, June 25 – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts ended stronger on Wednesday, lifted by worries about recent excess moisture in southwest Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan causing unseeded and lost canola acres.
Reports of slow crop development across Western Canada, due to a lack of hot weather, were also bullish, said analysts.
Some of the strength was also linked to steady commercial demand, as canola remains undervalued compared to other oilseeds.
A lack of significant farmer selling, as they wait until they’re more confident in the new crop, also lifted prices.
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However, the upswing in the value of the Canadian dollar and weakness in Chicago soyoil futures limited the gains.
Profit taking ahead of Friday’s Statistics Canada acreage intentions report was also bearish.
Volume in the canola market was about 31,400 contracts on Wednesday, with a large amount of EFP’s (exchange for physical) moving through the July contract, traders said. On Tuesday, 16,393 contracts changed hands.
Milling wheat, durum and barley futures were untraded though slight revisions to milling wheat were made by the Exchange after Wednesday’s close.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were slightly higher on Wednesday as traders were expecting tight old crop supplies and heavy rains in certain areas that will damper any late seeding crops.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its Stocks and Acreage report on Monday, June 30, and the stocks estimate is expected to reveal the smallest June 1 inventory in 27 years, analysts say.
Soybean futures rose between 2.25 to 4.50 cents U.S. per bushel.
There were signs of bearish weather benefiting growing conditions in some areas despite futures moving higher, analysts say. There were also bearish ideas that the Stocks and Acreage Report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture may add more acres to the soybean crop, brokers say.
Traders see soybean acreage up about 660,000 acres from the 81.493 million acres from the March Prospective Plantings Report. Some traders see the low-end estimate at 80.5 million acres with the high-end estimate at 84 million acres.
SOYOIL futures closed lower on Wednesday.
SOYMEAL futures closed higher on Wednesday, keeping the spread with soybean oil futures.
CORN futures in Chicago were down on June 25 as there is good precipitation coverage across the Corn Belt for the next five days, analysts say.
Corn contracts fell 0.75 to 2.00 cents U.S. per bushel.
There is also a chance for a few days of drier weather conditions in northern Iowa and the southern Minnesota region. However, the rainfall expected for the southern and eastern U.S. should be a bearish factor for corn and soybean crops, traders say.
The June 30th Stocks and Acreage Report from the USDA is also expected to be bearish as traders see the planted corn area up approximately 35,000 acres from the 91.691 million acres forecast in the March Prospective Plantings Report.
WHEAT futures in Chicago were higher on Wednesday on ideas that the June 30 USDA report will have spring wheat acres down 150,000 acres from the 12.009 million acres in the March Prospective Plating report, traders say.
Wheat futures were up 3.50 to 4.50 cents U.S. per bushel on June 25.
However, dry weather in parts of the U.S. southern Plains allowed producers to collect winter grain. There is also continued talk that the U.S. market will need to follow the European and Black Sea region markets lower in order to see normal export business continue to be a bearish force, brokers say.
• Egypt’s government has purchased a record 3.7 million tonnes of wheat from local farmers this year, replenishing the country’s stocks of domestic and importing to last the next six months, traders say.
• Egypt consumes approximately 15 to 20 million tonnes of wheat a year. Ten million tonnes are produced locally, and the rest come from imports.
ICE Futures Canada settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
