North American grain/oilseeds review: canola up with soyoil, Ukraine problems

By Terryn Shiells, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Mar. 3 – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were stronger on Monday, underpinned by spillover support from the gains seen in Chicago soyoil futures.

Worries that political problems will slow grain exports out of Ukraine and Russia, and possibly shift some demand to North America, added to the bullish tone.

The downswing in the value of the Canadian dollar provided further support for prices, as did continued ideas that canola is undervalued compared to other oilseeds.

However, the gains were limited by ongoing logistics problems in Western Canada and the resulting slow usage of Canadian canola.

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Profit taking and a pickup in farmer selling at the highs of the day also tempered the upside.

About 19,825 canola contracts were traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 12,837 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 13,920 of the trades.

Milling wheat, durum and barley futures were untraded.

SOYBEAN futures closed seven cents lower to four cents a bushel higher on Monday.

Nearby contracts were undermined by profit taking and a pickup in farmer selling following recent gains, analysts said.

News that China expects to import only 3.49 million tonnes of soybeans in March, from 5.05 million tonnes in February, was also bearish.

On the other side, continued worries about tight US soybean supplies were supportive, as were concerns about the unrest in Ukraine and Russia shifting demand for grains to North America.

SOYOIL futures were 59 to 81 points higher, lifted by spillover support from the gains seen in outside vegetable oil markets, brokers said.

SOYMEAL futures closed US$3.40 to US$7.20 lower, undermined by profit taking and reports of slowing domestic crusher demand for the product, participants said.

CORN futures were three to seven cents higher on Monday, as concerns that political problems in the Black Sea region will slow grain exports out of the area were bullish.

Support also came from better than expected weekly export inspections data, as well as expectations that the US Environmental Protection Agency will not lower the ethanol mandate again.

However, a pick up in farmer selling at the highs and large US corn supplies helped to temper the advances, market watchers noted.

WHEAT futures in the US were stronger, as Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago futures finished 15 to 30 cents US per bushel higher.

Worries that political problems will affect grain exports out of the Black Sea region, and shift some demand to North America, also lifted US wheat prices.

Better than expected weekly export inspections data and ongoing concerns about cold weather damaging US winter wheat crops added to the bullish tone.

Chart-based buying, as buy-stops were hit on the way up, helped to exaggerate the gains, analysts said.

• France’s durum crop is rated as 62 per cent in good to excellent condition, up from 53 per cent last year, FranceAgriMer said. The soft wheat crop was 75 per cent in good to excellent condition, from 67 per cent a year ago.

• The USDA reported 609,867 tonnes of wheat were inspected for export during the week ended February 27, up from 482,430 tonnes the week prior.

• Wheat production is expected to fall 14.3 per cent this year in Turkey due to a drought in the country, the Turkish Union of Agricultural Chambers said.

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