North American grain/oilseeds review: canola up slightly with soy complex

By Terryn Shiells and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, April 16 – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts closed slightly higher on Wednesday, following the advances seen in the Chicago soy complex, analysts said.

The weaker Canadian dollar and ideas that canola is still undervalued compared to other oilseeds were also bullish for the futures.

However, profit taking following recent gains helped to limit the gains, as did Canada’s burdensome supply situation, brokers said.

Expectations that Canadian farmers will plant more canola acreage this spring and a lack of fresh demand were also bearish, as was a pickup in farmer hedges at the highs.

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About 25,757 canola contracts were traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 17,226 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 19,966 of the trades made.

Milling wheat, durum and barley futures were untraded, though the Exchange adjusted wheat prices after the close on Wednesday.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rose to an 8-month high on speculation that declining US stockpiles will not be sufficient to cover future international demand.

According to the National Oilseed Processors Association, soybean processing in March jumped to 153.8 million bushels as compared to 141.6 million the month before.

Numbers from the US Department of Agriculture show 41.2 million metric tonnes of soybeans were shipped since the start of the marketing year on September 1st, that is up 23% from last year.

SOYOIL futures also moved higher Wednesday on the strength of the surging processing data, traders said.

SOYMEAL futures ended higher, following soybeans.

WHEAT futures in Chicago corrected slightly lower Wednesday as weather forecasts for the US Midwest improved significantly.

The warming air is expected to lower the threat of cold stress or winterkill on crops in the US Southern Plains and Midwest, said analysts.

This week’s freeze in the western Great Plains may have killed some wheat, according to a report. But weather forecasters estimate the loss is less than one percent of total production.

CORN futures in Chicago settled into the lower end of their range Wednesday as improving weather forecasts suggest farmers will be able to perform badly-needed field-work soon and begin planting the new crop.

So far only three percent of the US corn crop has been put into the ground according to the Department of Agriculture, that’s well below the five-year average of six percent.

China is reportedly looking to Ukraine and Brazil for supplies indicating demand is rising in the Asian country.

• The US has agreed to allow Japan to retain tariffs on wheat during bilateral talks, according to a Japanese government source.

• Indonesian wheat imports are expected to rise 6 percent this year, according to a forecast from that country’s Wheat Flour Mills Association.

• Pakistan is reportedly looking at using high quality seeds for the upcoming wheat crop.

ICE Futures Canada settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

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