North American grain/oilseeds review: canola strengthens with weak C$

By Terryn Shiells, Commodity News Service Canada

WINNIPEG, March 30 – The ICE Futures Canada canola market managed to finish stronger on Monday, shrugging off a late day sell-off seen in the Chicago soybean complex.

The downswing in the value of the Canadian dollar was bullish, as it made canola more attractive on the international market, traders said.

Steady commercial demand and the need to keep weather premiums built into prices ahead of spring seeding in Western Canada further underpinned values.

Though, the large global oilseed supply situation was limiting the upside.

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Monday’s advances were also seen as a good selling opportunity, as the market’s technical bias is shifting lower, analysts added.

About 17,128 contracts changed hands on Monday, which compares with Friday when 21,935 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 7,718 of the trades.

Milling wheat, durum and barley futures were all untraded. Though, the Exchange moved barley and wheat prices higher after Monday’s close.

Chicago soybean futures ended flat on Monday, as traders squared positions ahead of Tuesday’s USDA prospective plantings and stocks report. Values finished unchanged, to 1 cent US per bushel higher.

Some of the buying was linked to short covering ahead of Tuesday’s report, with spillover support also coming from the wheat market.

On the other side, the large global supply situation and expectations of record planted acreage in the US this spring were bearish.

SOYOIL futures finished slightly softer, succumbing to a late-day sell-off after trading higher for most of the session, brokers said.

SOYMEAL futures were firmer, as traders covered short positions ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report.

CORN futures in Chicago finished two to four cents per bushel higher on Monday, following the advances seen in wheat futures.

Ideas that the USDA will show a decrease in corn acreage in the US this spring were also bullish, according to market watchers.

However, strength in the US dollar index limited the upside, as it made US corn more expensive to foreign buyers.

Wheat futures were sharply stronger in the US, with Chicago, Minneapolis and Kansas City markets finishing 15 to 23 cents US per bushel higher.

The markets were underpinned by concerns about more dry weather harming winter wheat crops in the US Great Plains.

Short covering ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report, as spring wheat area is expected to drop, added to the stronger tone, participants said.

However, the US dollar index was firmer on Monday, which was bearish as it discouraged export buyers from purchasing US wheat supplies.

• Pre-report guesses call for all wheat planted area to bre about 55.80 million acres in the March 31 prospective plantings USDA report.

• Reports show that a group from Israel issued a tender to purchase 45,000 tonnes of feed wheat, optional origin. Jordan also tendered for 100,000 tonnes of optional origin hard milling wheat.

• Wheat production in India could be down by two per cent compared to the record large 95.85 million tonnes grown in 2013/14, due to damage caused by untimely rains, according to a government research body.

ICE Futures Canada settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

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