North American grain/oilseeds review: canola lower with spec profit taking

By Terryn Shiells and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, March 20 – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were down sharply on Thursday, as the speculative fund accounts that caused a recent rally in the market took profits, analysts said.

Spillover pressure from the sharply weaker Chicago soyoil futures also helped to fuel some of the downward price action.

A recent pickup in farmer selling added to the bearish tone, as did the large Canadian canola supply situation.

However, weakness in the Canadian dollar, as it remained below 89 cents US, helped to limit the losses, as did steady commercial demand.

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About 40,576 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 27,841 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 27,038 of the trades.

Durum and barley futures were untraded. Milling wheat futures were also untraded, though the Exchange moved prices lower after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade settled narrowly mixed on Thursday, moving up a couple of cents in the nearby May contract, but posting losses of up to five cents per bushel in the more deferred positions.

Soybeans started the day with solid gains across the board, but ran into resistance to the upside and profit-taking came forward to weigh on values, said participants.

Ideas that Brazil will still have a large crop overall, despite any nearby weather concerns and modest yield revisions, weighed on soybeans as well.

However, demand for US soybeans remains strong in the near term, with weekly export sales coming in at 38% ahead of the previous week.

SOYOIL futures were down sharply on Thursday, with spreading against soymeal and spillover from the losses in Malaysian palm oil behind some of the weakness.

SOYMEAL futures were higher on Thursday, boosted by good export demand. Weekly US soymeal sales, at 242,000 tonnes, were up 52% from the previous week.

CORN futures in Chicago were down three to nine cents per bushel on Thursday, as increased farmer selling weighed on prices.

The recent strength in the corn market was said to be encouraging more farmer sales, especially as many producers are looking to generate some cash flow ahead of spring planting.

Spillover from the declines in wheat also weighed on corn.

However, weekly US corn exports remained strong, providing some underlying support.

WHEAT futures in Chicago settled 11 to 12 cents per bushel lower on Thursday, as profit-taking on Wednesday’s move to fresh 10-month highs weighed on values. Kansas City and Minneapolis futures were down 4 to 10 cents per bushel.

Easing concerns over supply disruptions from the Black Sea region were also bearish for wheat.

However, persistent concerns over dry weather conditions hurting the US winter wheat crop did remain supportive.

• The Indian government is considering suspending wheat exports, according to reports from the country. Recent hailstorms likely cut into the country’s own production prospects.

• Thick ice at Canada’s Port of Thunder Bay on Lake Superior will delay grain shipping from the port for at least a week later than normal, according to news reports.

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