By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada
October 2, 2014
Winnipeg – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts settled higher on Thursday, as spillover from the firmer tone in CBOT soybeans and positioning ahead of Friday’s Statistics Canada production report provided support.
Solid end user demand, especially from domestic crushers, contributed to the gains, with a lack of significant farmer selling on the other side also behind some of the strength, according to participants.
However, while farmers are currently focused on harvest operations, sales from the countryside are expected to start picking up over the next few weeks.
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Statistics Canada releases updated production estimates on Friday, October 3. While most industry participants anticipate
a slight upward revision to the size of the canola crop from the last report, actual yield reports have been highly variable as the harvest moves forward. The market will follow the report closely, but the numbers will also likely be second guessed as soon as they come out, as the survey was conducted in early September before any serious harvest progress had taken place.
About 23,293 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 16,095 contracts changed hands. Spreading was a feature, accounting for 21,460 of the contracts traded.
Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although prices were revised after the close.
CORN futures in Chicago ended one to two cents per bushel higher Thursday, finding support in this week’s rainfall that has slowed harvest efforts across part of the Midwest.
On Wednesday, storms dumped rainfall on much of Missouri and Western Illinois, according to a report.
A private brokerage firm in the US raised its estimates for corn production to 14.958 billion bushels with a national yield of 178.4 bushels per acre.
SOYBEAN futures in Chicago lifted seven to eight cents per bushel higher on weather issues and tight supplies of soymeal.
Two to four inches of rain were reported in some soybean fields across the Midwest slowing harvest efforts, said an analyst.
A private firm raised its estimate for US soybean yields to 48.4 bushels per acre. That is up from 47.6 last month and helped to limit the gains, according to a report.
SOYOIL futures were little changed on Thursday.
SOYMEAL futures recorded gains on tight volumes.
WHEAT futures in Chicago surged three to four cents per bushel higher on Thursday, as export sales came in better than expected and ideas mounted that Russia will begin to conserve wheat supplies for domestic use.
Wheat finished with 741,000 metric tonnes in export sales last week, well above trade guesses which hovered in the 400,000 to 600,000 range.
Egypt has purchased 180,000 tonnes of French wheat at prices below those seen at US ports, according to a report.
– Ukraine is still on pace to secure a record grain harvest, despite the annexation of Crimea by Russian, and loss of other farmlands in disputed parts of the country. A briefing from the Minister of Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Good says 64,421,000 tons of grain and leguminous crops will be brought in during the harvest of 2014.
– Egypt has announced it plans to reduce wheat imports next season to 4 to 4.5 million tonnes, said government officials.
– South Australia has begun harvesting wheat, barley and pulse crops, according to a report.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
