By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin
Winnipeg, July 20 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market ended lower on Monday, weighed down by losses in the US soy
complex.
Some traders engaged in mild profit-taking near the close which contributed to the declines.
Scattered showers across a significant portion of the Canadian Prairies in recent days were bearish for values.
Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed futures were also lower which weighed on values.
However, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the 2015/16 canola crop, according to a trader.
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“We’ve got crop developments all over the place, you’ve got canola that’s been flowering for three to four weeks and you’ve
got other canola that just started flowering,” he said.
It will be harder for canola to achieve another rally unless some fresh news arrives, he added.
Around 10,135 canola contracts were traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when around 13,976 contracts changed hands.
Milling wheat and durum were all untraded while 25 barley contracts changed hands.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were down by three to nine cents per bushel on Monday, with improving Midwestern weather conditions behind much of the selling pressure. The move below the psychological US$10.00 per bushel mark in the November contract was also bearish from a chart standpoint.
Traders are generally expecting to see the good-to-excellent ratings of the US soybean crop to move up slightly in this week’s USDA report.
The large South American crops also remain a bearish influence in the background.
SOYOIL and SOYMEAL both settled lower on Monday.
CORN futures in Chicago were down by 10 to 15 cents per bushel on Monday, as the forecasts calling for warmer and drier weather across the Midwest should help boost the yield potential of the US crop.
The strengthening US dollar and chart-based selling contributed to the declines in corn, with values touching their lowest levels in two weeks.
WHEAT futures in Chicago were down 18 to 21 cents per bushel on Monday, with fund long liquidation a feature. Minneapolis and Kansas City contracts were also down on the day.
A lack of demand on the other side contributed to the downturn in wheat, as US wheat remains expensive for international buyers. Recent strength in the US dollar further cut into the export demand.
The advancing US winter wheat harvest and improvements to wheat crops elsewhere in the world added to the bearish tone, said traders.
– The US hard red winter (HRW) wheat harvest is nearly complete in the Southern Plains, according to the US Wheat Associates, while the harvest in the northern tier states ranges from about 15% to 30% complete. The soft red winter (SRW) harvest is also nearing completion in the southern growing regions, but only about 50% done in Indiana and Maryland.
– The European wheat harvest is also progressing, with yields in France generally beating earlier projections, according to reports from the country.
– India is considering implementing import duties on wheat in order to help move more of the large local supplies.
