By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada
September 30, 2014
Winnipeg – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were down on Tuesday, taking some direction from the losses in the CBOT soy complex.
The USDA released its quarterly stocks report on Tuesday, and tighter than expected old crop soybean supplies were a bit supportive for the oilseeds in general. However, soybeans were unable to hold onto any gains, as the record large production prospects for this year’s soybean crop kept the bias pointed lower in the US market.
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Canola lagged soybeans to the downside as uncertainty over the size of the Canadian canola crop kept some caution in the canola futures.
Statistics Canada releases updated production estimates on
Friday, October 3, but the survey was conducted before any significant harvest activity had occurred.
The Canadian dollar was weaker on Tuesday, which provided some underlying support for canola, according to participants.
About 18,927 canola contracts were traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 9,635 contracts changed hands. Spreading was a feature, accounting for 13,512 of the contracts traded.
Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were down six to eleven cents per bushel on Tuesday, as the record large new crop production prospects more than compensated for the tight old crop supply situation.
The USDA pegged US soybean stocks, as of September 1, at only 92 million bushels, which was well below both the year-ago level of 140 million and average pre-report guesses closer to 130 million. The tighter than expected old crop supplies were seen a sign of the strong demand for US soybeans, but any strength in the market proved short-lived.
New crop projections remain record large, and with the harvest moving forward across the US the great production prospects kept soybeans pointed lower.
SOYOIL futures were down on Tuesday, as losses in soybeans and the outside vegetable oil markets weighed on values.
SOYMEAL futures were down on Tuesday, following soybeans.
CORN futures in Chicago were down to fresh five year lows on Tuesday, losing three to five cents per bushel as ample supplies weighed on values.
Great Midwestern weather conditions and the bumper US crop that will soon be harvested added to the softer tone in corn, according to participants.
However, oversold price sentiment and scale-down end user demand was slightly supportive.
WHEAT futures in Chicago were down two to four cents per bushel on Tuesday, as the market also took some direction from the latest USDA supply data. Minneapolis and Kansas City futures posted larger losses, losing five to eight cents.
In a separate report, the USDA pegged the country’s spring wheat crop at 600.8 million bushels, which was well above average trade guesses of about 572 million.
– Land controlled by the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) in Iraq now accounts for as much as 40 percent of the country’s wheat production, according to reports.
– South Africa’s wheat crop is estimated at 1.79 million tonnes by the country’s Crop Estimates Committee, which would be up from earlier estimates but slightly below the 1.87 million tonnes grown the previous year.
– Dry weather conditions in the United Kingdom may limit winter wheat plantings, according to reports.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
