By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 22 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were lower on Monday in light activity that saw the market correct after Friday’s bounce.
Losses in the soy complex at the Chicago Board of Trade weighed on values.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) issued its Outlook for Principal Crops for July on Friday, with a drop in the department’s canola production estimate. The AAFC lowered canola production by 325,000 tonnes with the revised estimate at 18.575 million tonnes. That’s also an 8.7 per cent drop from canola production in 2018.
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Bruce Burnett of MarketsFarm lowered his estimate for canola production as well last week. Burnett called for 17.850 million tonnes after taking into account the slow pace of growth this year and the threat of frost in September.
The AAFC dropped its estimate for the canola carryout to 3.975 million tonnes from 4.30 million. Last year’s carryout was approximately 3.90 million tonnes.
There were 12,111 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 26,342 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,198 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Nov 447.00 dn 2.60
Jan 453.90 dn 2.70
Mar 460.90 dn 2.70
May 466.70 dn 2.60
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Monday, due to cooler temperatures and the lack of fresh news regarding sales to China.
The United States and China are expected to resume face-to-face trade negotiations in the near future; however neither side has yet to announce a date.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported approximately 559,500 tonnes of soybeans were exported during the week of July 18. That was not only down more than 34.5 per cent from the previous week, but also nearly 23.2 per cent behind last year’s pace at this point.
Trade expectations for soybean conditions are 54 per cent good to excellent.
CORN futures were weaker on Monday, also due to cooler temperatures throughout the U.S. Corn Belt.
The USDA reported corn exports of just over 438,000 tonnes, which was more than 36.5 per cent lower than the previous week. Also exports at this time were about one-third behind this time last year.
WHEAT futures were down on Monday, having been caught up in the spillover from corn and soybeans.
The USDA reported wheat exports totaled approximately 433,200 tonnes, which was an increase of almost 24.3 per cent over the previous week and slightly ahead of exports this time last year.
Trade expectations for U.S spring wheat were pegged at 76 per cent good to excellent. The pace of the winter wheat harvest was predicted to be 73 per cent complete.
The European wheat harvest was well underway, with France expected to produce 38 million tonnes of soft wheat, 4 million tonnes more than in 2018, according to reports. Germany was predicted to produce 23.85 million tonnes, about 20 per cent more than last year. The United Kingdom’s harvest was pegged at 15 million tonnes, up by 1 million tonnes. Poland was estimated to reap 10.7 million tonnes, for a 10 per cent increase over last year. Sweden was projected to double its crop from 2018 to 3.2 million tonnes.
