By Phil Franz-Warkentin
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market fell to fresh contract lows on Thursday, lacking any fresh supportive news.
Losses in Chicago soyoil and a firmer tone in the Canadian dollar contributed to the declines, with speculators thought to be adding to their large short positions. Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed futures were also lower on the day.
While scale-down end user buying likely provided some support, export demand continues to run well behind the year-ago level with the market trending lower in an effort to uncover more demand, according to participants.
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However, the market looks oversold according to some technical indicators.
There were an estimated 77,232 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 90,567 contracts traded. Spreading was a feature as participants were busy rolling their positions out of the nearby March contract, accounting for 63,062 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade fell to fresh eight-month lows on Thursday, pressured by rising acreage, yield and ending stocks projections.
The United States Department of Agriculture released supply/demand projections for the 2024/25 marketing year as part of its annual Agriculture Outlook Forum on Thursday. U.S. soybean seedings this spring were forecast at 87.5 million acres, which would be up by 3.9 million on the year. Average yields were forecast at a record 52.0 bushels per acre, with ending stocks climbing to 435 million bushels from an anticipated 315 million in the current marketing year.
Weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 353,800 tonnes of old crop business were up slightly on the week, but 23 per cent below the four-week average.
CORN fell to fresh contract lows, following soybeans and wheat.
The USDA called for a 3.6-million-acre reduction in U.S. corn plantings on the year, at 91 million acres. However, average yields were forecast to rise to a record 181 bushels per acre.
The anticipated U.S. corn carryout of 2.53 billion bushels compares with 2.17 billion bushels forecast for the current crop year.
Weekly US corn export sales came in at the high end of trade expectations at 1.3 million tonnes.
WHEAT was lower across the board, hitting new lows in many contracts.
The USDA pegged total U.S. wheat area in the upcoming crop year at 47.0 million acres, which would be down from 49.6 million last year. Average yields were forecast to increase by nearly a bushel per acre at 49.5 bushels per acre, with ending stocks forecast to rise by 111 million bushels at 769 million.
Weekly U.S. wheat export sales were down eight per cent on the week, but in line with trade guesses at about 349,000 tonnes.
