By Phil Franz-Warkentin
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Friday, seeing a corrective bounce off contract lows to end the week.
Oversold price sentiment and end user bargain hunting at the lows underpinned the futures, with gains in Chicago soybeans and European rapeseed providing additional spillover support.
However, Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower on the day, putting some pressure on values. Increased farmer selling on any moves higher also tempered the gains, as producers are still thought to be sitting on large amounts of unpriced canola.
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The canola market will be closed Monday for Manitoba’s Louis Riel Day, with much of the rest of the country also celebrating provincial holidays. Markets in the United States will be closed for Presidents Day.
There were an estimated 48,065 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 77,232 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 33,252 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved higher on Friday, seeing a correction to end the week after hitting eight-month lows on Thursday.
While the advancing Brazilian soybean harvest remained a bearish influence, many private forecasters have been drastically cutting their production estimates given the adverse conditions earlier in the growing season.
The United States Department of Agriculture recently pegged Brazil’s crop at 156 million tonnes, but many private estimates have fallen below 150 million tonnes with some now even under 140 million.
Meanwhile, key soybean growing regions of Argentina saw welcome rains over the past week with about three quarters of the planted soybean area now said to have adequate to optimal soil moisture.
CORN was weaker, seeing continued pressure from yesterday’s large carryout expectations from the USDA.
The anticipated carryout of 2.53 billion bushels compares with 2.17 billion bushels forecast for the current crop year.
The International Grains Council (IGC) did lower their world ending stocks estimate for 2023/24 by a million tonnes, now at 286 million tonnes.
WHEAT was weaker across the board, hitting new lows in many contracts.
Thursday’s USDA Ag Outlook Forum was deemed as bearish for wheat, with burdensome U.S. ending stocks projections weighing on prices once again today. The agency forecast U.S. wheat carryout to loosen by 111 million bushels by the end of the 2024/25 marketing year at 769 million bushels.
The world wheat carryout was lowered by a million tonnes by the IGC at 265 million tonnes.
