By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 12 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Wednesday, as chart-based buying and spillover from gains in the Chicago soy complex provided support.
Canola showed independent strength to start the day, as wide crush margins and solid end user demand provided support despite early losses in soyoil.
Updated supply/demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture elicited a bullish response in the soy complex, helping keep canola firm by the close.
About 46,627 canola contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 40,606 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 33,034 of the contracts traded.
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SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Wednesday, seeing a bullish reaction to the latest supply/demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture.
The USDA pegged U.S. soybean yields for 2022/23 at 49.8 bushels per acre, which was down by 0.7 bu./ac. from the September estimate, while leaving harvested area unchanged. Average pre-report expectations had been for a slight upward revision to yields.
Ending stocks for the current marketing year were held at 200 million bushels, despite a slight increase in the 2021/22 carryout to 274 million bushels.
Brazil’s soybean production was upped by three million tonnes by the USDA, to 152 million, while Argentina’s crop was left unchanged at 51 million tonnes.
Solid export demand contributed to the gains in soybeans, with the USDA reporting private export sales of 526,000 tonnes of soybeans to China this morning.
The U.S. soybean harvest was 44 per cent done in the latest weekly report – six points ahead of average.
CORN was pulled in two directions on Tuesday, settling near unchanged with spillover from the gains in soybeans countered by a bearish tone in wheat.
The USDA lowered its average corn yield estimate by 0.6 bu./ac., to 171.9 bu./ac., which was in line with expectations.
U.S. corn ending stocks were forecast at 1.17 billion bushels.
The U.S. corn harvest was 31 per cent complete as of this past Sunday – one point ahead of the average for this time of year.
WHEAT posted large losses in all three markets, as the USDA adjusted its wheat balance sheet slightly. Small downward revisions to yields and harvested area resulting in a 103 million bushel cut in production, now at 1.65 billion bushels.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2022/23 were also revised lower, to 576 million bushels, but average trade estimates had been for even tighter supplies.
World wheat ending stocks, at an estimated 267.5 million tonnes, were down by 1.1 million from the September report.
U.S. winter wheat was 55 per cent seeded as of this past Sunday, which was three points behind the average. Dryness in the Southern Plains was raising some concerns over germination in the area.
