By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 14 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market traded to both sides of unchanged on Friday, settling higher in the most active months.
While overbought price sentiment and losses in Chicago soyoil pressured the market throughout the session, the path of least resistance remained pointed higher for canola.
Continued dryness concerns across much of the Prairies and ideas that yields are unlikely to live up to early expectations helped underpin the futures.
A weaker tone in the Canadian dollar, which was down by roughly half a cent relative to its United States counterpart, was also supportive.
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About 36,181 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 31,214 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 19,406 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were mixed on Friday, retreating from earlier gains after running into resistance.
Forecasts call for scattered rainfall across much of the Midwest over the weekend, although the longer-range outlooks remain hot and dry.
Brazil’s CONAB lowered their forecast on the size of the country’s soybean crop by 1.5 million tonnes from an earlier estimate, now at 154.6 million tonnes. That compares with the USDA’s estimate of 156 million.
CORN was underpinned by the weather Midwestern weather uncertainty, and ideas recent losses were overdone as traders adjusted positions ahead of the weekend.
CONAB raised their Brazilian corn production forecast by two million tonnes from an earlier estimate to 127.8 million tonnes, but that would still be below the USDA’s 133 million tonne forecast.
WHEAT was higher across the board, with all three U.S. contracts up by over 20 cents per bushel in the most active months.
The deal allowing Ukrainian grain to move through the Black Sea is set to expire on Monday, with little progress in reaching a new agreement. Exports out of the region have already slowed down, and a full cancelation would likely give US wheat futures an added boost.
Strategie Grains lowered their estimate on the European wheat crop to 126.2 million tonnes, which would be 11.8 million tonnes below the USDA’s forecast.
