By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 11 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Tuesday, backing away from nearby chart resistance as activity resumed following the Thanksgiving long weekend. Canadian markets were closed Monday while grains and oilseeds in the United States traded their usual hours.
Losses in Chicago soyoil accounted for some spillover selling in canola, with European rapeseed also weaker. However, soybeans moved higher, and Malaysian palm oil also showed some strength.
Seasonal harvest pressure added to the declines in the Canadian oilseed, as farmer deliveries into the commercial pipeline have picked up over the past few weeks. However, end user demand on the other side is also strong, with solid exports in the latest weekly report.
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About 40,606 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Friday when 19,357 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 32,108 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved to both sides of unchanged on Tuesday, with the bias was higher at the close as traders adjusted positions ahead of Wednesday’s monthly supply/demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture.
Opinions ahead of the report are divided on whether soybean yields will be revised higher or lower compared to earlier estimates, although average guesses point to a slight increase in yields. General expectations are for increases in ending stocks, as the official carry-in number was upped at the end of September.
The advancing U.S. soybean harvest remained a bearish influence in the background.
Low Mississippi river levels continue to disrupt barge traffic, although dredging operations have cleared up some areas.
CORN posted solid gains on Monday and was thought to be due for a bit of a correction on Tuesday.
Average trade estimates ahead of Wednesday’s report call for a small cut to U.S. corn yields, although some market participants still anticipate a bigger crop.
Both U.S. and world ending stocks should tighten, with any surprises in the data likely to dictate the nearby direction in the futures.
WHEAT posted large losses in all three markets, as traders took profits after Monday’s rally.
The wheat market continues to follow news out of Ukraine closely, with Russian strikes in recent days heightening concerns over grain movement from the war-torn region.
Tighter U.S. and world stocks are expected in Wednesday’s USDA report.
