By Phil Franz-Warkentin
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market was sharply lower on Wednesday, taking back all the gains from earlier in the week to settle just above contract lows in the absence of any supportive news as the market continued its attempts to uncover fresh demand.
Bearish chart signals and increased farmer selling after small advances earlier in the week contributed to the declines, with spillover from the losses in Chicago soybeans and soyoil also weighing on prices.
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However, gains in Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed futures provided some support.
There were an estimated 90,567 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 63,207 contracts traded. Spreading was a feature as participants were busy rolling their positions out of the nearby March contract, accounting for 74,790 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were down sharply on Wednesday, hitting fresh eight-month lows.
Long-term yield projections from the United States Department of Agriculture call for average U.S. soybean yields of 52.5 bushels per acre in the upcoming growing season, with the average growing by half a bushel a year until hitting 56.5 bushels per acre in 2032. The country’s soybean carryout was forecast to hold under 310 million bushels every year for the next decade.
More detailed balance sheet projections for the upcoming growing season will be released Thursday as part of the USDA’s 100th annual Ag Outlook Forum. Most pre-report trade guesses are calling for an increase in planted soybean area from the 83.6 million acres seeded last year, with average estimates around 86.7 million acres. Ending stocks are generally forecast to rise substantially.
The advancing Brazilian harvest remained a bearish influence in the background, with improving moisture conditions in Argentina also weighing on prices.
CORN fell to fresh contract lows on Wednesday, caught up in the broad selling pressure.
The long-range USDA forecast saw average U.S. corn yields rising by two bushels per acre each year over the next decade, from 183.5 bushels per acre in 2024 to as high as 199.5 bushels per acre by 2032.
Corn seeded-area is expected to be down on the year in tomorrow’s report, with average estimates calling for a three million-acre cut at around 91.6 million acres.
WHEAT was lower across the board, with the largest losses in Chicago soft winter wheat as the spreads between the three U.S. contracts saw some adjustment.
Russia’s SovEcon raised their wheat production estimate for the country by 1.4 million tonnes, to 93.6 million tonnes.
The long-term USDA forecast called for wheat yields of 49.6 bushels per acre in 2024, rising by 0.3 to 0.4 bushels per year going forward.
