By Phil Franz-Warkentin
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Monday, seeing a continuation of last week’s selloff as bearish technical signals weighed on values and fund traders added to their short positions.
Losses in crude oil spilled into the vegetable oil markets, with European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures both down on the day.
Chicago soyoil was also under pressure, but managed to recover off its lows to turn mixed which provided some support to canola.
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Scale-down end user demand and ideas the losses were looking overdone also helped temper the declines.
There were an estimated 33,276 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 25,010 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 17,510 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade extended their losses from last week, trading below key chart levels on Monday.
Speculators have moved from a small net long to a net short position in soybeans, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report, and were thought to be adding to those bearish bets.
Recent rainfall in Brazil also weighed on prices, as the moisture will help developing crops there. However, forecasts call for a return to hot and dry conditions over the next week.
Meanwhile, some long-range outlooks are calling for fading El Nino conditions over the next few months which would point to good planting weather for the United States this upcoming spring.
Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections came in at about 675,000 tonnes, which was about half of what moved the same week a year ago. U.S. soybean exports are running well behind the year ago pace, with 23.95 million tonnes exported to date down by 6.3 million tonnes on the year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its monthly supply/demand estimates on Friday, with pre-report positioning a feature. Quarterly stocks data and winter wheat acreage estimates will also be released.
CORN futures were down in sympathy with most everything else, with the losses in crude oil especially bearish for the ethanol-linked grain.
Expectations that Friday’s report will show a large corn carryout contributed to the declines.
Weekly U.S. corn export inspections of about 860,000 tonnes were up on the week and roughly double what moved the same week a year ago.
WHEAT moved lower, with snowfall or rains across much of the U.S. winter wheat growing region behind some of the selling pressure. However, colder temperatures in the forecast could cause some damage.
Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of just under half a million tonnes brought the year-to-date shipments to 10.1 million tonnes, which compares with 12.1 million tonnes at the same time last year.
