North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola down, wheat makes gains

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market reversed course and retreated on Friday despite mostly positive sentiment in comparable oils.

While Chicago soyoil was down, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were on the rise. Crude oil was also higher.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up less than one-tenth of a United States cent compared to Thursday’s close.

There were 61,169 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 81,222 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 50,156 of the contracts traded.

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WHEAT contracts for March Kansas City hard red and Minneapolis spring were relatively steady at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on Friday.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected world wheat ending stocks at 259.4 million tonnes, down 600,000 from the January estimate.

The Texas-Oklahoma border is expected to see as much as 63 mm of rain over the next week.

Polish farmers have blocked roads and border crossings to Ukraine to start a month-long strike, protesting against European Union policies to combat climate change, rising costs and cheaper imports from other countries including Ukraine. The farmers are also calling for EU Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski to resign.

Ukraine’s ag minister Mykola Solsky told Reuters that Ukraine’s spring planting area for grains should be approximately the same as last year. However, he expressed concern that farmers have grown winter wheat with lower quality seeds, which may reduce wheat quality. The country seeded 4.2 million hectares of winter wheat.

The March CORN contract hit another contract low of US$4.2825 per bushel on Friday after moving downwards for the sixth time in seven sessions.

The USDA projected global 2023-24 corn carryout at 322.2 million tonnes, down three million from January, the same amount cut in its Brazilian production estimate at 127 million.

During a conference in Washington, D.C., U.S. Chief Agricultural Negotiator Doug McKalip said that the dispute over genetically modified corn exports to Mexico will likely be resolved this year. The U.S. called for a dispute resolution panel under the terms of the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement, which will meet later this year.

Solsky said that Ukraine plans on planting around four million hectares of corn this spring.

The American Farm Bureau expects more than eight million pounds of corn tortilla chips to be eaten by Americans watching the Super Bowl on Sunday.

The March SOYBEAN contract returned to the red, while also failing to reach the US$12/bu. mark for the first time in four days. The July contract also closed below the mark for the first time since June.

The USDA raised projected 2023-24 world soybean stocks by 1.4 million tonnes at 116 million, slightly above trade expectations. This was despite a cut in 2023-24 soybean output by 770,000 tonnes at 398.2 million.

Just like wheat, Ukraine’s ag minister said a lack of high-quality soy seeds could be a major obstacle in production. Last year, the country planted 1.78 million hectares of soybeans.

 

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