North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola down, grains fall

WINNIPEG -– The ICE Futures canola market ended Friday on a weak note, dropping below major support levels as traders had a bearish reaction to quarterly soybean stocks data out of the United States.

Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed were down, while Malaysian palm oil was mostly lower in its return on Thursday after a holiday. Crude oil also took a step back.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down more than four-tenths of a United States cent compared to Thursday’s close.

High temperatures were not expected to surpass 20 degrees Celsius in Alberta and Saskatchewan today with rain in most parts. In southern Manitoba, the temperature was set to reach 23 C to go along with sunny skies.

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The Canadian Grain Commission reported that 72,500 tonnes of canola were exported for the week ended Sept. 24, bringing the year-to-date export total to 565,200 tonnes.

About 39,855 canola contracts were traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 33,979 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 25,186 of the contracts traded.

Prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on Friday fell hard after the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its quarterly grain stocks report.

The December CORN contract had its biggest one-day drop since Aug. 21, which also ended two days of gains.

There were 1.36 billion bushels of corn in storage as of Sept. 1, down one per cent from last year, according to the USDA. Of that total, 605 million on the farm, which was up 19 per cent from one year ago. Corn production for 2022-23 was revised downwards by 15 million bushels to 13.715 billion despite a slightly raised average yield.

Rain is in the forecast for next week in the western U.S. Corn Belt into Minnesota and the Dakotas. However, the eastern Corn Belt should see little precipitation.

Ongoing dry weather in Argentina is delaying corn planting with only seven per cent of the country’s crop in the ground compared to 15 per cent last year, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

The November SOYBEAN contract hit its lowest price since late June and fell well below the US$13 per bushel mark. It was the second time in 10 sessions that the contract lost more than 25 U.S. cents/bu. in a single day.

Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans totalled 268 million bushels on Sept. 1, six million lower than last year. From those stocks, 72 million bushels were on the farm, up 14 per cent from one year ago. Soybean production for 2022-23 was lowered by six million bushels to 4.27 billion.

The Mississippi River dropped to a reading of minus-10.62 feet in Memphis on Thursday, near its record-low of minus-10.81 set last year, causing difficulties for corn and soybean barges.

China indicated to exporters that imported soybeans must have a moisture level of 13 per cent or less as of Dec. 1.

Chicago WHEAT and Minneapolis spring wheat lost more than 30 U.S. cents/bu., capping off rough weeks for the two varieties. Kansas City hard red wheat was let off easy by comparison, dropping slightly more than 20 U.S. cents/bu.

Wheat stocks in the U.S. as of Sept. 1 were 1.78 billion bushels, two million more than last year, with 598 million on the farm. All wheat production in 2023 increased by 10 per cent to 1.81 billion bushels.

The Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) reported that Canadian wheat exports for the week ended Sept. 24 totalled 574,600 tonnes, bringing the 2023-24 crop year-to-date total to 3.02 million.

Dryness in parts of Argentina has delayed the seeding of the country’s wheat crop, but 10 to 25 millimetres of rain are expected for three provinces over the next week.

Ukraine’s ag ministry reported that the country has harvested 22.2 million tonnes of wheat this year.

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