WINNIPEG, April 21 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Thursday, setting fresh contract highs yet again as bullish chart signals kept speculators adding to their large net-long positions.
Gains in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil and a softer tone in the Canadian dollar contributed to the advances in canola.
However, canola was also thought to be looking overpriced at current levels, with scale up hedges tempering the gains.
Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based acreage estimates for the upcoming growing season on April 26. While strong prices should be encouraging an increase in seeded canola area from the 22.5 million acres planted in 2021, many market participants still anticipate a slight decline in canola area due to competition from other crops and rising input costs.
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About 15,605 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 19,507 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,452 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade managed to settle with small gains on Thursday, as a rally in soyoil pulled values higher.
Weekly United States soybean export sales included 460,000 tonnes of old crop business and an additional 1.24 million tonnes of new crop sales. Most of the business was already known due to previous large daily flash sales.
Updated supply/demand projections from the International Grains Council called for world soybean production in 2022/23 at 383 million tonnes, which would be well above the downwardly revised 349 million tonne estimate for the current marketing year. Total world soybean ending stocks are forecast to build to 54 million in the new crop year, which would be about 10 million above the forecast for the current year.
CORN saw some profit-taking after hitting fresh highs yesterday.
Weekly U.S. corn export sales of about 880,000 tonnes of old crop business and an additional 390,000 tonnes of new crop came in at the lower end of expectations.
The IGC is calling for reductions in both global corn production and ending stocks in the new crop year, with their first estimate pegging global production at 1.197 billion tonnes. That would be down from the 1.210 billion tonne forecast for this 2021/22. Carryout at 265 million tonnes would be down by 21 million from the current marketing year.
WHEAT futures were lower across the board, with the largest declines in Kansas City hard red winter wheat.
The IGC pegged world new crop wheat production at 780 million tonnes, which would be down by only one million on the year. Carryout stocks are forecast to decline by five million tonnes, to 277 million tonnes, due to an increase in domestic usage
Uncertainty over the state of the U.S. wheat crop, with persistent dryness for winter wheat in the Southern Plains and ongoing precipitation slowing spring wheat planting in the north, provided some support.
