By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, March 30 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures ended its rally on Thursday when prices gave up gains made in the morning.
A trader warned that other vegetable oils were beginning to run into resistance. He commented that with spring planting approaching the markets will now watch the weather from now through to the end of May.
Pressure on canola came from losses in Chicago soybeans and especially soyoil. European rapeseed was also down hard, but Malaysian palm oil held on to its gains. Increases in global crude oil prices helped to tempered further declines in the vegetable oils.
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The Canadian Grain Commission reported total exports for February came to 3.77 million tonnes. That included 1.46 million tonnes of wheat and 767,200 tonnes of canola. Although down from January’s exports, they are up 107 per cent when compared to February 2022.
The Canadian dollar was higher at mid-afternoon Thursday, as the loonie was at 73.94 U.S. cents, compared to Wednesday’s close of 73.66.
There were 37,026 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 32,052 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 24,306 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change Canola May 764.60 dn 5.40 Jul 745.70 dn 6.40 Nov 717.90 dn 7.10 Jan 721.30 dn 7.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were mostly lower on Thursday, due to lackluster export sales.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its export sales report for the week ended March 23. Current crop soybeans sales came in at 348,200 tonnes, which was about midway in trade expectations. New crop sales came to 3,900 tonnes and well below market guesses.
The USDA is set to publish its prospective plantings and quarterly grain stocks as reports tomorrow at 11 am CDT. The average trade guesses are 88.24 million acres and total farm/commercial stocks as of March 1 are to be 1.74 billion bushels.
China and Brazil announced they will now trade in their own currencies rather than in U.S. dollars.
Grain inspectors in Argentina said they are set to go on strike at midnight. They’re demanding pay increases in light of the whopping 102 per cent inflation in Argentina.
Reuters estimated that Argentina might need to import 10 million tonnes of soybeans, with five million from Brazil, to make up for domestic shortfalls due to the severe drought.
The European Union estimated its 2023/24 oilseed production will top 33.6 million tonnes, up seven per cent from last year and a new record. Rapeseed is to increase one per cent at 19.8 million tonnes. Sunflowers are to be up 18 per cent at a record 10.9 million tonnes.
CORN futures were down on Thursday, due to pressure from soybeans and Chicago wheat.
The string of U.S. export sales to China continued today with a private deal for 178,000 of current crop corn.
The USDA said current crop corn export sale were 1.036 million tonnes, which were within expectations. New crop sales amounted to 21,800 tonnes, which fell below market guesses.
Corn acres for 2023/24 are expected to be 90.88 million and stocks are believed to be 7.47 billion bushels.
The EU pegged its 2022/23 corn production at 55.5 million tonnes, up 3.4 million. However that’s still a far cry from the 72.7 million in 2021/22. Corn imports were trimmed by two million tonnes at 21 million.
WHEAT futures were mixed on Thursday, with hard losses in Chicago and small upticks in Kansas City and Minneapolis.
Export sales of U.S. wheat tallied 151,700 tonnes of current crop, which were within trade projections. New crop sales were 37,400 tonnes, also within guesses.
Total U.S. wheat acres are expected to be 48.85 million and stocks are to be 934 million bushels.
Tension between Russia and the U.S. were pushed higher with the arrest of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. Russian authorities accused Gershkovich of spying, which the newspaper adamantly denied.
The EU upped its forecast on 2022/23 soft wheat exports by four million tonnes at 36 million. Production estimates were raised one million tonnes at 127 million. Ending stocks are projected to be 14.5 million tonnes, down by 2.6 million.
Ukraine grain exports in March were 5.1 million tonnes, vastly more than the 1.4 million last March.
The United Nations said Sudan will very likely need to import 3.5 million tonnes of wheat this year as farmers have switched to other crops. That reportedly caused a 30 per cent drop in the country’s wheat output.
