North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Christmas rally dissipates into losses

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – The recent rally in Intercontinental Exchange canola futures came to end on Thursday, as prices turned around to finish lower.

Growing losses in global crude oil prices spilled over into canola and Chicago soyoil. There were additional losses in Chicago soybeans and soymeal. European rapeseed closed higher while Malaysian palm oil was relatively steady.

An analyst said the rally in canola was likely generated by managed money liquidating their short positions.

The Canadian dollar was lower at mid-afternoon Thursday as the U.S. dollar regained some lost ground. The loonie slipped to 75.59 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 75.73.

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Friday is first notice day for all January futures.

There were 26,598 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 34,581 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 15,784 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

                        Price     Change

Canola          Jan     648.20    dn 12.50

                Mar     660.10    dn  9.10

                May     667.40    dn  9.40

                Jul     673.50    dn  8.80

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Thursday, being pulled down by declines in crude oil prices.

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast the Midwest to have seasonal temperatures over the next several days.

Due to Christmas, the U.S. Department of Agriculture postponed its weekly export sales report to Friday. Ahead of the report, market guesses ranged from 800,000 to 1.7 million tonnes of old crop. Soymeal export sales were projected to be 100,000 to 300,000 tonnes and soyoil to be less than 10,000 tonnes.

The dry areas of Brazil remained forecast to receive much needed rains.

Brazil exporter group ANEC pegged the country’s December soybean exports at 3.48 million tonnes, down 20,000 from its previous estimate. Brazil soymeal exports were projected at 2.05 million tonnes.

The Argentina energy secretariat hiked the minimum biodiesel price by 34 per cent at the equivalent of US$1,143.84 per tonne.

Egypt bought 35,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.

Friday is first notice day for January futures.

CORN futures were lower on Thursday, due to a lack of fresh news and pressure from soybeans.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended Dec. 22 averaged 1.107 million barrels per day, for a slight dip from the previous week. Ethanol stocks reached a 35-week high of 23.52 million barrels.

U.S. corn export sales are expected to be 600,000 to 1.2 million tonnes of old crop.

ANEC said Brazil corn exports for December are to be 6.96 million tonnes, slipping back from its previous call for 7.17 million.

WHEAT futures were higher on Thursday, correcting from yesterday’s losses.

Trade expectations called for U.S. old crop wheat export sales of 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes.

SovEcon placed Russian wheat exports for 2023/24 at 48.6 million tonnes, down 200,000 due to risk premiums for the Black Sea and Suez Canal.

The Rosario Grain Exchange projected Argentina’s total grain production for 2023/24 at 137 million tonnes.

Egypt cancelled its wheat tender for this week after not making any purchases.

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