North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola stems the tide of its losses

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Sept. 20 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures tacked on slight gains Wednesday, taking back a little bit of the sharp losses they incurred this week.

An analyst pointed to canola being oversold along with farmers holding back the oilseed until cash prices improved.

Additional support for canola came from gains in Chicago soybeans and soymeal, plus Malaysian palm oil. However, declines in Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil limited the upside.

Manitoba reported its provincewide harvest was about two-thirds complete with canola a little more than halfway finished.

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Temperatures across the Prairies were forecast to be modest while rain was to fall on the northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, plus the latter’s southeast corner.

After pushing higher earlier today, the Canadian dollar was virtually unchanged by mid-afternoon Wednesday with the loonie at 74.47 U.S. cents.

There were 38,412 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 50,521 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 22,438 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

                        Price     Change

Canola          Nov     736.10    up  1.80

                Jan     745.10    up  1.50

                Mar     751.70    up  1.20

                May     757.50    up  0.20

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Wednesday along with gains in soymeal, but soyoil was weaker.

The United States Department of Agriculture announced a private sale of 120,000 tonnes of 2023/24 soybeans to unknown destinations.

A system is forecast to drop rain in the U.S. Northern Plains and the Corn Belt, bringing delays to the soybean and corn harvests.

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced it kept its benchmark interest rates at about 5.4 per cent, but cautioned future hikes were possible.

CONAB pegged Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean production at 162.4 million tonnes compared to 2022/23’s harvest of 154.6 million. Exports for the coming year are increase nearly 4.7 per cent at 101.5 million tonnes and the crush is to expand 3.9 per cent at 54.9 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, Abiove projected Brazil’s oilseed processing capacity to increase nine per cent in 2024 at 75.0 million tonnes.

China reported its soybean imports from Brazil in August of almost 9.4 million tonnes were up 45 per cent compared to last year.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Wednesday, with increases for Chicago and Minneapolis, while Kansas City eased back.

Russia announced its total grain harvest this year reached 123 million tonnes so far, with expectations for it to top 130 million. Exports projected to hit 60 million tonnes.

SovEcon trimmed its call on Russian wheat production from 92.1 million tonnes to now 91.6 million but nudged up barley output from 20.9 million tonnes to 21.2 million.

Ukraine reported its winter wheat planting was about 12 per cent complete at 1.27 million acres so far.

With the Brazil wheat harvest about 23 per cent complete, CONAB projected it to reap a record 10.8 million tonnes, up 2.5 per cent from last year.

CORN futures were higher on Wednesday due expected harvest delays in the U.S.

CONAB forecast Brazil’s 2023/24 corn crop at 119.8 million tonnes, up from the previous year’s 131.9 million. The safrinha harvest was said to be about 96 per cent complete.

SovEcon revised its forecast on the Russian corn harvest from 14.8 million tonnes to 15.6 million.

Ukraine called for a compromise with Hungary, Poland and Slovakia on those countries’ ban on Ukrainian grain import restrictions. As well, Ukraine has filed a trade dispute complaint with the World Trade Organization and threatened the trio of countries with import restrictions.

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