North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola rises, but increases fade

WINNIPEG – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures closed higher on Monday but faded from much stronger gains earlier in the session.

Recent missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian ports carried out by Russia and the ongoing drought across the Canadian Prairies provided the main impetus for today’s increases.

Additional support came from strong upticks in the Chicago soy complex, as well as increases in Malaysian palm oil. European rapeseed also pushed upward, except for losses in the nearby August contract. Advances in global crude oil prices lent support to the vegetable oils.

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The Canadian dollar was higher at mid-afternoon Monday, as the loonie climbed to 75.94 U.S. cents, compared to Friday’s close of 75.69.

There were 28,472 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 35,521 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 13,864 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

                        Price     Change

Canola          Nov     830.00    up  4.20

                Jan     831.60    up  6.00

                Mar     830.40    up  8.90

                May     822.50    up  9.80

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Monday, propelled upward by uncertainty over the latest developments in the war in Ukraine.

The United States Department of Agriculture announced a private sale of 121,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans to China.

The USDA reported export inspections of soybeans of 283,378 tonnes for the week ended July 20. While that’s an improvement from the previous week, it’s also well short of inspections from a year ago. The year-to-date reached 50.18 million tonnes, a little behind the 53.09 million this time last year.

Vietnam approved the commercial use of two vaccines for African swine fever. The vaccines are the first of their kind against the disease that almost always kills infected pigs.

CORN futures were stronger as well on Monday, in sympathy with soybeans.

Intense heat of more than 38 degrees Celsius has been forecast for most of the U.S. Corn Belt over the next seven days, with light rain at best for several locales.

The USDA said corn export inspections were 309,981 tonnes, down from last week and very much lower than those a year ago. Total inspections hit 34.23 million tonnes, far short of the 51.08 million the same time last year.

The department also reported the country’s beef cow herd hit a 52-year low of 29.4 million beefs cows as of July 1.

With the demise of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, estimates projected a 5.5-point drop in Ukraine’s share of global corn exports to 9.5 per cent.

Reports said that Russia attacked one of Ukraine’s ports on the Danube River for the first time, and Russia destroyed a grain depot in Odesa. Expectations are Ukraine is set to shift some of its exports to the Romanian port of Constanta.

WHEAT futures surged on Monday, with Chicago September closing limit up.

The USDA tallied wheat inspections at 358,796 tonnes, higher than those last week, but lower than the same week a year ago. While still early in wheat’s 2023/24 marketing year, the year-to-date came to 2.15 million tonnes, behind the 2.59 million last year.

SovEcon reported that Russia wheat prices rose more than six per cent at US$242 per tonne following the end of the Black Sea export deal.

Another report said Ukraine’s wheat exports are expected to fall 2.5 points to five per cent of the world’s supply.

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