North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola rallies on war concerns

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Feb. 28 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were stronger on Monday, but stepped away from larger gains earlier in the session.

Ample spillover from the Chicago soy complex, along with European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil fueled the spike in canola prices. A surge in global crude oil lent support to edible oils.

Despite negotiations between Russia and Ukraine getting underway on Monday, Russian forces struck at Kyiv. Reports indicated that the prospects of a cease fire agreement are very slim.

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The Canadian dollar was higher at mid-afternoon, with the loonie at 78.77 U.S. cents, compared to Friday’s close of 78.45.

There were 24,943 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 32,727 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 11,946 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola May 1,032.70 up 31.50
Jul 1,009.80 up 28.60
Nov 876.40 up 22.50
Jan 877.20 up 22.90

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Monday as the Russia-Ukraine War remained at the heart of increases in all of the grain commodities.

The economic sanctions placed on Russia by the United States and several other countries were reportedly hurting the Russian economy, in particular the country’s expulsion from the SWIFT financial reporting system. The ruble lost about 40 per cent of its value and Russia’s central bank pushed its key interest up by 20 points to 29.5 per cent. Also, the war and sanctions have seen exports from both countries out of the Black Sea sharply curtailed, such as those for sunflower oil. Russia and Ukraine account for 80 per cent of the world’s sunflower exports.

The U.S Department of Agriculture issued its export inspections report for the week ending Feb. 24. At 735,278 tonnes, those for soybeans were down 29.5 per cent compared to the previous week. The year-to-date reached 40.61 million tonnes, but are 22.1 per cent lower than inspections this time last year.

The USDA announced two private sales of soybeans, with one for 136,000 tonnes to China to be delivered during the 2022/23 marketing year. The other was for 120,000 to unknown destinations with delivery during the current marketing year.

This week’s weather forecast for South America has called for rain over Argentina and southern Brazil.

CORN futures jumped to their daily limit on Monday.

Corn exports are down due to the fighting. The two countries account for 19 per cent of the world’s corn exports.

The USDA said corn export inspections amounted to 1.54 million tonnes, which are 2.2 per cent less than last week. The year-to-date stood at 23.19 million tonnes and 11.6 per cent behind those from a year ago.

WHEAT futures surged on Monday, with larger increases in Chicago and Kansas City than for Minneapolis.

The decline in wheat exports out of the Black Sea was also being felt. Russia and Ukraine supply approximately 29 per cent of the world’s wheat exports.

U.S. wheat export inspections amounted to 406,138 tonnes, falling 28.9 per cent on the week. At 15.48 million tonnes, the year-to-date inspections are 14.7 per cent behind those a year ago.

The U.S. Midwest was forecast to see clear skies today, with the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest expect to get precipitation by tonight.

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