China rumours fail to support U.S. soy
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange retained their gains on Wednesday, despite increases in the Chicago soy complex evaporating.
An analyst said canola, along with United States soybeans and corn, have been pushing above their harvest lows. He suggested this trend could go on until spring, with some volatility from time to time.
The analyst said talk of the meeting between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been having some positive effect on the market.
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Canola derived additional support from upticks in MATIF rapeseed, although Malaysian palm oil closed lower. Moderate increases in crude oil underpinned vegetable oils.
Even with canola not closing as strong on Wednesday, the January contract remained slightly above its 50-day moving average.
The Canadian dollar kept to its upward trend on Wednesday afternoon with the loonie at 71.80 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday’s close of 71.64.
There were 59,390 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 44,136 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 34,918 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change
Canola Nov 627.00 up 2.30
Jan 641.30 up 2.50
Mar 652.20 up 1.70
May 662.10 up 1.00
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were mostly lower on Wednesday in choppy trading as the market weighed the latest news.
There’s speculation in the trade that China’s state-owned COCFO bought 180,000 tonnes of soybeans from the United States. The purchase came a day before Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are to discuss their countries’ trade relations. With the U.S. government shutdown, the Department of Agriculture didn’t issue a notice of the purchase.
In the absence of the USDA export sales report, the trade estimated soybean sales at 600,000 to 1.60 million tonnes for the week ended Oct. 23. Soymeal was believed to be 50,000 to 500,000 tonnes and soyoil from 5,000 to 25,000 tonnes.
Rabobank projected the 2025/26 Brazil soybean production at 177 million tonnes.
CORN futures were mixed on Wednesday, with spillover from gains in crude oil underpinning the front months..
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production averaged 1.09 million barrels per day for the week ended Oct. 24, down 21,000 BPD from the previous week. Ethanol stocks increased 448,000 at 22.37 million.
The trade forecast U.S. corn export sales from 1.10 million to 2.10 million tonnes.
Rabobank estimated the 2025/26 Brazil corn crop at 137 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were mixed on Wednesday, as spring wheat eased back while winter wheat bumped up.
About 52 per cent of U.S. winter wheat fields are mired in drought conditions. The weather forecast called for limited precipitation over wheat growing areas for the coming week.
The trade placed U.S. wheat export sales at 350,00 to 600,000 tonnes.
