By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures dropped back on Tuesday, giving up most of yesterday’s gains.
An analyst said there was broad pressure on the oilseed complex, in correction. He cautioned the market could turn negative had canola lost all of Monday’s increases.
The analyst said the canola market will likely wait on Thursday’s prospective plantings and quarterly grain stocks reports from the United States Department of Agriculture before taking a direction.
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There were losses in the Chicago soy complex, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Small declines in global crude oil prices added a bit more pressure on the oilseeds.
The Canadian dollar was relatively steady at mid-afternoon Tuesday, with the loonie at 73.65 U.S. cents compared to Monday’s close of 73.62.
There were 35,724 contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to Monday when 38,792 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 21,050 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola May 638.50 dn 11.20 Jul 648.00 dn 11.40 Nov 655.60 dn 10.40 Jan 663.00 dn 10.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Tuesday, caught up in a broad correction in the global oilseed market.
Ahead of Thursday’s prospective plantings report from the United States Department of Agriculture, the average trade guess for 2024/25 soybean acres is 86.70 million, up 3.10 million from last year. The USDA, at its February Outlook Forum, estimated this year’s plantings to be 87.50 million.
Also come Thursday, the USDA is scheduled to release its report on grain stocks as of Mar. 1, with the average market prediction at 1.84 billion bushels. The same time last year the department said stocks were 1.69 billion bushels.
AgRural placed the Brazil soybean harvest at 69 per cent complete, almost on par with a year ago.
CORN futures were lower on Tuesday, in sympathy with soybeans.
The average trade guess for U.S. planted corn acres came to 91.80 million, down from last year’s 94.60 million. At the Outlook Forum, the USDA called for 91.0 million acres.
Corn stocks are expected to drop to 8.45 billion bushels from the 9.50 billion in March 2023.
Corn planting in Texas was reported to be 46 per cent complete as of Mar. 24, up 12 points on the week and nearly double from this time last year.
Safras and Mercado estimated the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop at 97 per cent finished as of Mar. 22, and slightly ahead of a year ago.
China said its sow herd of 40.42 million head shrank 6.9 per cent from a year ago.
South Korea bought 134,000 tonnes of corn from South Africa.
WHEAT futures were weaker on Tuesday, caught in a market-wide downturn.
The average trade guess placed total U.S. wheat acres for 2024/25 at 47.30 million, down from last year’s 49.60 million. Spring wheat acres are expected to be 10.90 million.
The average trade guess for U.S. wheat stocks was 1.05 billion bushels, bumping up from last year’s 944 million.
IKAR placed the price for Russian wheat exports at US$204.50 per tonne, free-on-board delivery, up by US$3.50 from last week. Meanwhile SovEcon pegged the same wheat at US$202 to US$205/tonne FOB, up from US$201-$204.
SovEcon projected Russian wheat exports for March to reach five million tonnes, a record for the month.
Consultancy Interfax estimated Kazakhstan’s 2024/25 wheat crop at 13.0 million to 14.0 million tonnes compared to last year’s 12.10 million.
