By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, March 17 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures finished mixed on Friday in light volumes of trading.
A trader emphasized that canola is presently overvalued and is set to drop significantly when the spec longs choose to cash out.
An analyst commented that there might not be sufficient canola stocks at the West Coast ports, should there be a labour disruption at Canadian Pacific Railway. The CP stated it will lock out the 3,000 members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference on Sunday if a new agreement isn’t reached.
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Support for canola came from gains in Chicago soymeal and European rapeseed. Declines in Chicago soybeans and soyoil, as well as weakness in Malaysian palm oil weighed on values. Increases in global crude oil prices lent support to edible oils.
At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was higher with the loonie at 79.33 U.S. cents compared Thursday’s close of 79.05.
There were 10,645 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 15,563 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,892 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola May 1,124.80 dn 5.40
Jul 1,098.80 up 1.50
Nov 932.80 dn 0.20
Jan 932.70 up 0.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Friday, after a day of choppy trading.
The United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Beijing said China’s 2022/23 soybean imports are expected to hit a record 100 million tonnes.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its soybean production estimate for Argentina by 2.6 per cent at 42 million tonnes.
Due to the war, farmers in Ukraine will likely switch corn acres to sunflowers, soybeans and other oilseeds. The country provides 30 per cent of the world’s sunflower production.
The International Grains Council’s March supply and demand estimates put world soybean production for 2021/22 at 349.8 million tonnes, down 0.9 per cent from February. Global ending stocks were down three per cent at 42 million tonnes.
Iran tendered for 60,000 of soymeal and 30,000 tonnes of soyoil.
CORN futures were lower on Friday, following declines in wheat.
Agroconsult called for a record safrinha corn crop in Brazil of 92.2 million tonnes, which would be up more than 52 per cent from last year.
The Argentine corn harvest was reported to be 6.9 per cent complete.
The lack of corn exports out of Ukraine could see China buying more from the U.S.
In the IGC’s March report, global corn production was increased 0.3 per cent at approximately 1.21 billion tonnes. The world corn carryover was raised 2.2 per cent at 286.6 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were weaker on Friday, due to a positive weather outlook for the main wheat-growing areas of the U.S.
That outlook predicted rains for the Central and Southern Plains during late winter/early spring. Western areas are expected to remain hot and dry, with drought conditions set to worsen.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are to discuss the war in Ukraine today. Biden has warned China about exporting military weapons to Russia, while China has rebuked the U.S. and its allies for sending weapons to Ukraine.
SovEcon pegged wheat production in Ukraine for 2022/23 at 26 million tonnes, down eight per cent from the previous year. The consultancy based their estimate on a ceasefire coming within the next several weeks. Of note, approximately 70 per cent of Ukraine’s diesel imports in the past have come from Russia and Belarus.
China’s wheat imports for February came to 680,000 tonnes, down 30.4 per cent from the previous February.
France said its wheat conditions were 92 per cent good to excellent as of March 14.
The IGC raised global wheat production 0.09 per cent at 781.3 million tonnes and increased global wheat ending stocks by 1.25 per cent at 281.4 million tonnes.
