By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed higher on Thursday, after three days of sharp losses.
A trader chalked up the gains to “routine fluctuations” as there was little else to move prices. He noted that the Prairie heatwave this week permitted crops to catch up in their development. However, any adverse weather across the region would generate quick changes in canola futures.
Spillover for the Canadian oilseed came from gains in the Chicago soy complex and Malaysian palm oil, while European rapeseed eased back. Modest increases in crude oil further underpinned the vegetable oils.
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Saskatchewan reported its canola rated 84 per cent good to excellent provincewide.
The Canadian dollar was slightly lower by mid-afternoon Thursday with the loonie at 73.35 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 73.42.
There were 38,235 contracts traded on Thursday, compared to the 36,840 contracts that changed hands on Wednesday. Spreading accounted for 16,056 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 611.10 up 4.30 Jan 631.10 up 3.50 Mar 638.80 up 3.00 May 645.10 up 2.50
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were steady to higher on Thursday in spate of choppy trading.
The United States Department of Agriculture issued its export sales report and for the week ended July 4 soybean sales tallied 208,000 tonnes of old crop plus 191,300 tonnes of new crop. Both came in near the low end of trade expectations.
Soymeal export sales came to 53,100 tonnes of old crop and 22,800 tonnes of new crop, with both short of guesses. Those for soyoil amounted to 9,700 of old crop while new crop incurred net reductions of 3,500 tonnes. While the old crop met projections, the new crop fell well short.
The weather outlook going into next week has called for rain over less than 10 per cent of the continental U.S. Temperatures are to range from 35 to 40 degrees Celsius.
Ahead of Friday’s USDA’s supply and demand estimates, the trade projected 2023/24 soybean ending stocks to bump up to 355 million bushels, while those for 2024/25 are to slip to 449 million. The USDA is scheduled to release the report at 11 am CDT.
Conab revised its call on 2023/24 Brazil soybean production to 147.34 million tonnes and dropped soybean exports to 92.4 million from 101.8 million.
The trade has projected the USDA to peg Brazil soybeans at 151.75 million, down from the June report. That for Argentina is to dip to 49.95 million tonnes.
CORN futures were higher on Thursday, benefitting from gains in soybeans and wheat.
Export sales of U.S. corn came within market guesses as old crop tallied 538,300 tonnes and new crop was at 116,500 tonnes.
The U.S. corn carryover for 2023/24 is to edge up to 2.05 billion bushels, and the 2024/25 corn carryover is to rise to 2.31 billion bushels.
Conab nudged up its estimate of total Brazil corn production for 2023/24 to 115.86 million tonnes. Of that, the safrinha crop is to account for 90.01 million tonnes, up nearly 1.9 million tonnes from last month. The agency kept corn exports from June at 33.50 million tonnes, but that’s well below the 54.6 million in 2022/23.
The trade forecast the USDA to trim Brazil corn production to 121.3 million tonnes and lower Argentina corn to 51.07 million tonnes.
Strategie Grain cut its projection for 2024/25 European Union corn production from 62.6 million tonnes in June to now 62.0 million, due to hot and dry conditions in southeastern Europe.
WHEAT futures were higher on Thursday, rebounding from sharp declines earlier in this week.
The USDA said export sales of 2024/25 wheat amounted to 240,400 tonnes, compared to trade expectations for 300,000 to 700,000 tonnes.
Projections for U.S. wheat production are for an increase to 1.91 million bushels.
Strategie Grain raised 2024/25 EU wheat production to 122.3 million from its June call of 121.8 million. The EU barley crop was cut by 900,000 tonnes at 51.3 million.
