North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola catches spillover from soy complex

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Sept. 11 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were stronger on Friday, getting significant spillover from the Chicago soy complex. The release of the United States Department of Agriculture monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, as well as its crop production report proved to be quite bullish for soybeans.

More support came from gains in European rapeseed, while Malaysian palm oil was largely steady.

Also, a trader said there has been spec fund interest and strong commercial demand for canola. He said there are questions in the market as to how much canola Canada will produce this year. Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its next principal field crops report on Sept. 14.

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The Canadian Grain Commission reported producer deliveries of canola for the week ended Sept. 6 were 410,700 tonnes. That’s an increase of 69.4 per cent from the previous week. Canola exports came to 169,000 tonnes and were down 34 per cent. Domestic usage inched up a little more than one per cent at 163,700 tonnes.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was lower at 75.77 U.S. cents, compared to Thursday’s close of 75.98.

There were 31,493 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 35,064 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 18,984 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 517.40 up 7.60
Jan 524.80 up 7.50
Mar 530.60 up 7.30

May 531.30 up 4.70

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were higher on Friday, following the release of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) monthly supply and demand estimates and its crop production report.

The USDA lowered its estimate of soybean yields from 53.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac.) to 51.9. That meant production was dropped 2.5 per cent to 117.38 million tonnes. However, that’s 21.4 per cent more soybeans than in 2019. Ending stocks were cut 24.5 per cent from August to 12.52 million tonnes.

In the USDA’s world agriculture production report, it increased its estimate of global soybean production by almost one per cent to 252.37 million tonnes. Global ending stocks were lowered 1.86 per cent at 93.59 million tonnes.

In the USDA weekly export sales report, soybeans came to 3.16 million tonnes. Soymeal sales were 26,600 tonnes for 2019/20 and 333,000 tonnes for 2020/21. Soyoil sales were 4,100 tonnes of 19/20 and a net reduction of 3,000 tonnes for 20/21. With the new marketing year having started on Sept. 1, about 2.54 million tonnes of soybeans was carried over.

The department reported two private sales of soybeans, with 262,000 tonnes to China and 222,000 tonnes to unknown destinations. Delivery is for the current marketing year.

CORN futures were higher on Friday, on spillover from soybeans.

The USDA reduced its forecast for corn yields from 181.8 bu/ac. to 178.5 due damage caused by last month’s derecho, but that still makes for a record crop. Production dropped 2.5 per cent from August to 378.47 million tonnes. The carryover was lowered 9.2 per cent at 63.57 million tonnes.

The USDA projected global corn production to inch up 0.1 per cent from its August report to 783.91 million tonnes. Global ending stocks were lowered 3.36 per cent at 306.79 million tonnes.

The department reported weekly corn export sales of 1.82 million tonnes. With the new crop year, about 1.25 million tonnes was carried over.

France reported the condition of its corn crop was down one point at 60 per cent good to excellent. Also, the corn harvest was one per cent complete.

Ukraine said its 2020/21 corn exports were 608,000 tonnes, plummeting 64.2 per cent from the same period in 2019/20.

WHEAT futures were lower on Friday as domestic production was unchanged but global production was increased.

U.S. wheat production is to hold steady, according to the USDA, with the yield to remain at 50.1 bu/ac. and production still to be 50.01 million tonnes. The carryover is to also hold firm at 25.19 million tonnes.

The USDA called for global wheat production to increase by 0.6 per cent from its August estimate to 720.48 million tonnes. The global wheat carryover was increased 0.8 per cent at 319.37 million tonnes.

U.S. wheat export sales amounted 484,400 tonnes, which was down 17 per cent from the previous week.

Ukraine reported its 2020/21 wheat exports were 6.2 million tonnes, which was pretty much in line with those in 2019/20.

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