By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 24 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed lower on Tuesday, after coming short on an attempted recovery following Monday’s steep losses.
Concerns in the commodities market were focused on the likelihood of an economic recession and on how it could affect demand.
In the meantime, declines in Chicago soyoil, Malaysian palm oil and most European rapeseed contracts put pressure on canola. Those losses were tempered by gains in rapeseed’s front contract as well as in Chicago soybeans and soymeal. A downturn in global crude prices weighed on vegetable oil values.
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Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada maintained canola ending stocks for 2022/23, at 1.5 million tonnes, and held its projection for the 2023/24 canola carryover at one million tonnes.
The Canadian dollar was pulling back at mid-afternoon Tuesday, due to sharp upticks in the United States dollar and that weakness in crude oil. The loonie dropped to 72.83 U.S. cents from Monday’s close of 73.03.
There were 43,065 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 38,776 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 24,938 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 677.50 dn 2.30 Jan 689.80 dn 1.40 Mar 698.70 dn 1.00 May 704.20 dn 1.20
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Tuesday, running against the sentiment in other vegetable oils.
The United States Department of Agriculture issued its crop progress report on Monday, showing the soybean harvest at 76 per cent complete as of Oct. 22. That’s a gain of 14 points on the week and nine ahead of the five-year average.
Soybean and Corn Advisor’s Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his call on U.S. soybean output at 4.08 billion bushels on a yield of 49.3 bushels per acre.
The last date for November options is set for Oct. 27, while the first notice day will be Oct. 31.
StoneX estimated that 25 per cent of Brazil’s new soybean crop has already been sold, which less than the preceding four seasons. Meanwhile, Safras and Mercado placed the new crop at 20 per cent sold, also down from previous years.
China reported its September soybean imports were 7.15 million tonnes, of which 6.88 million came from Brazil and only 134,000 from the U.S.
CORN futures were lower on Tuesday, as pressure from wheat proved stronger than support from soybeans.
The USDA announced a sale of 117,200 tonnes of 2023/24 corn to Mexico.
The U.S. corn harvest reached 59 per cent finished, progressing 14 points and five ahead of the average pace.
Cordonnier left his projections on the U.S. corn harvest unchanged at 15.02 billion bushels with a yield of 172.5 bu./ac.
APK-Inform projected Ukraine’s corn harvest to be 24.8 million tonnes, down 800,000 from its previous call. The consultancy placed the country’s corn exports at 13 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were lower on Tuesday, due to news regarding Russian production.
Russia estimated its total grain harvest in 2023 is down by 18 million tonnes compared to last year, but the 140 million to be gleaned was still the second most on record. Exports for the year are to be 60 million tonnes.
The planting of U.S. winter wheat hit 77 per cent in the ground, advancing nine points on the week and virtually on par with the five-year average. Of the crop, 53 per cent of the crop has emerged, which matches the average pace.
Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor saw 700,000 tonnes of grain exported during August, according to a report.
The Rosario Grain Exchange pegged the 2023/24 Argentine wheat crop at 14.3 million tonnes. However, drought conditions gained some relief from weekend rains with more falling today. Meanwhile, a report said the country’s farmers are distrustful of the two remaining candidates for the Nov. 19 presidential election runoff.
