North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola cannot sustain increases

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed slightly lower on Thursday, after earlier gains faded away.

A trader said fund buying generated the gains earlier in the session, but once that stopped prices began to drift lower.

Chicago soybeans and soyoil also saw their increases turn into losses, while soymeal held on to small upticks. European rapeseed also had trouble retaining its increases, ending the day mixed. However, Malaysian palm oil finished strong.

As the United States dollar turned higher, the Canadian dollar retreated at mid-afternoon Thursday. The loonie fell to 73.89 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 74.23.

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North American grain/oilseed review: Canola rises Tuesday

Glacier FarmMedia — The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Tuesday, moving back above some key technical levels in…

There were 54,300 contracts traded on Thursday, compared to Wednesday when 60,647 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 31,526 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

                        Price     Change

Canola          May     623.20    dn  1.80

                Jul     633.30    dn  1.50

                Nov     641.60    dn  1.20

                Jan     649.50    dn  0.90

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade lost their gains on Thursday to finish lower after the funds ceased buying earlier in the session.

The United States Department of Agriculture published its export sales report and for the week ending Mar. 7 soybean sales included 376,000 tonnes of old crop and 94,300 tonnes of new crop. Ahead of the report, market expectations called for old crop sales of 250,000 to 800,000 tonnes.

Soymeal export sales came to 209,500 tonnes of old crop and 96,300 tonnes of new crop. Those for soyoil were 11,200 tonnes of new crop and 6,900 tonnes of new crop. Projections for old crop sales were 150,000 to 350,000 tonnes for soymeal and minus 2,000 to plus 20,000 tonnes of soyoil.

Ahead of the monthly report from the U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association, the average trade guess called for the February crush to be 178.1 million bushels of soybeans. That would be 7.6 per cent more than a year ago.

The International Grain Council issued its monthly supply and demand report, showing global soybean ending stocks at 165.9 million tonnes for 2023/24 and rising to 172.1 million next year.

WHEAT futures were weaker on Thursday, getting hit with cheaper Russian wheat and the stronger U.S. dollar.

U.S. wheat export sales incurred a marketing year low of 83,800 tonnes of old crop plus 81,300 tonnes of new crop. Trade expectations were for minus 200,000 to plus 550,000 tonnes of old crop and zero to 100,000 tonnes of new crop.

The IGC put world wheat ending stocks at 267.5 million tonnes for 2023/24, and then tightening to 262.2 million in 2024/25.

A report said China is believed to have cancelled one million tonnes in wheat purchases from Australia. Previously, China cancelled wheat sales from the U.S. and France.

IKAR projected 2024/25 Russian wheat production at 93 million tonnes and exports of 50 million.

CORN futures were lower on Thursday, due to spillover from wheat, but losses were tempered by decent exports sales.

The USDA reported a private sale for 100,000 tonnes of old crop corn to Mexico.

The department said weekly corn export sales comprised of 1.28 million tonnes of old crop, with no new crops sales listed. Trade guesses were 800,000 to 1.4 million tonnes of old crop and zero to 50,000 tonnes of new crop.

The IGC estimated 2023/24 world corn ending stocks at 293.9 million tonnes and then bumping up to 296.9 million in 2024/25.

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