North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola cannot hold onto increases

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm –Intercontinental Exchange canola futures gave up earlier gains to close lower on Friday.

Pressure on canola came from declines in the Chicago soy complex and European rapeseed. Modest setbacks in global crude oil prices also weighed on vegetable oils. However, the losses in canola were tempered by upticks in Malaysian palm oil.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported producer deliveries of canola as of Jan. 14 remained behind the year ago pace at 7.49 million tonnes versus 9.09 million. Exports continued to lag behind at 2.69 million tonnes compared to 3.94 million. Domestic usage remained ahead of pace at 4.96 million tonnes to 4.64 million this time last year.

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Canola crush margins eased back with the old crop positions between C$170 to C$180 per tonne above the futures.

The Canadian dollar was on the rise at mid-afternoon Friday with the loonie at 74.42 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 74.05.

There were 41,083 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 28,663 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 28,484 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

                        Price     Change

Canola          Mar     628.30    dn  3.50

                May     634.90    dn  3.70

                Jul     639.40    dn  3.80

                Nov     636.20    dn  4.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were slightly lower on Friday, as declines in global crude oil prices turned around gains from decent export sales.

The United States Department of Agriculture announced a private sale for 297,000 tonnes of old crop soybeans to China. This was the first such sale to China in about a month.

The USDA released its export sales report and for the week ended Jan. 11, old crop soybeans come to 781,300 tonnes plus 1,700 tonnes of new crop. Soymeal export sales tallied 349,200 tonnes of old crop along with 1,700 tonnes of new crop. Those for soyoil were 100 tonnes. All those sales were within market expectations.

Agroconsult placed the amount of replanted soybean acres in Brazil at nearly 7.17 million acres, or 6.4 per cent of total plantings.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated the planting of Argentina soybeans at 97 per cent complete and rated them at 55 per cent good to excellent.

The Panama Canal Authority cut the number of vessels using the canal per day to 24 due a shortage of freshwater for the system’s lakes and locks.

CORN futures nudged up on Friday, with stronger increases held back by crude oil and the sizable South American crop.

Export sales of U.S. corn were 1.25 million tonnes of old crop and a little bit more than what the trade projected. New crop sales were 20,000 tonnes and within market guesses.

The BAGE placed Argentina corn planting at 90 per cent finished.

With the number of commercial vessels being attacked in the Red Sea rising, reports said more grain vessels are bypassing the Suez Canal, instead taking the longer route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

Analysts estimated Ukraine’s January grain exports could drop as much as 20 per cent by month’s end due to the Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Ukraine reported its January grain exports so far were 20.9 million tonnes versus 25.1 million a year ago.

WHEAT futures were higher on Friday, due to a cheaper U.S. dollar and good export sales.

At 707,600 tonnes of old crop, U.S. wheat export sales surpassed trade estimates.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for the continental U.S. starting next week.

Russia kiboshed any notions of new negotiations for another Black Sea grain deal the day after Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey commented plans were underway to restart them.

The BAGE said Argentina wheat planting was 98 per cent done.

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