By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, March 30 (MarketsFarm) – Although Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures finished narrowly mixed on Wednesday, with declines in the old crop months and increases in the new crop positions.
A trader said canola has generally been running contrary to the Chicago soy complex for about the last month. He expects such to carry on for the time being and perhaps into harvest.
The trader noted that farmers are selling very little of their old crop canola and are likely to hang onto some of it in hopes of cash prices reaching C$30 per bushel. Yesterday, Price and Data Quotes placed the oilseed at C$24 to C$25 per bushel.
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Despite what the trader said, there was support from a good upswing in the soy complex as well as in European rapeseed. Declines in Malaysian palm oil put pressure on canola.
Meanwhile, global crude oil turned around today to climb upward, which provided support to edible oils.
The Canadian dollar was higher at mid-afternoon, with the loonie at 80.13 U.S. cents, compared to Tuesday’s close of 79.94.
There were 14,038 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 20,477 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 5,082 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola May 1,134.00 dn 0.20
Jul 1,110.70 dn 2.50
Nov 961.30 up 1.30
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Wednesday, taking back a good portion of yesterday’s sell-off due to gains in crude oil.
The United States Department of Agriculture reported a private sale of 128,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans to Mexico.
The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly grains stocks and planting intentions reports tomorrow at 11 am CDT. The average trade guess for U.S. soybean stocks was pegged at 1.9 billion bushels, 21.8 per cent higher than stocks in March 2021.
The average market projection for U.S. soybean acres in 2022/23 has been set at 88.73 million, 1.8 per cent more than nearly 87.2 million seeded last year.
With yesterday’s large sell-off there has been speculation that China acquired nine to 12 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil and the U.S. This is despite China’s struggles with its economic recovery and ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks.
The European Union imported 10.15 million tonnes of soybeans from July 2021 to March 2022, for a drop of almost 11 per cent from the same period last year. Rapeseed imports were 3.9 million tonnes, falling 24 per cent. Sunflower imports slipped 5.2 per cent at 12.1 million tonnes.
The Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry said approximately 4,940 acres of soybeans and more than 5,400 acres of sunflowers have been planted, with 11 of the country’s 24 regions reporting.
WHEAT futures were stronger as well on Wednesday, benefitting from market skepticism towards Russian aims in Ukraine.
The average prediction for U.S. wheat acres has called for 11.8 million of spring wheat, 1.73 million of durum, and 34.24 million of winter wheat. Spring wheat acres would increase by 3.3 per cent, durum by 5.6 per cent and winter wheat bumping up 1.8 per cent.
The EU reported that its exports of soft wheat reached 19.87 million tonnes as of March 27. That’s down almost three per cent from a year ago.
Ukraine said that 55,600 acres of spring wheat and 184,800 acres of barley have been planted so far this spring. Its winter wheat acres came in at more than 19 million acres.
CORN futures swung higher on Wednesday, with spillover from soybeans and wheat.
The trade has settled on an average guess of 92 million planted acres of U.S. corn, for a 1.5 per cent reduction from last year.
The average projection for U.S. corn stocks is 7.88 billion bushels, for a 2.4 per cent increase over March 2021.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended March 25 averaged 1.04 million barrels per day. That made for a loss of 6,000 BPD. Ethanol stocks gained 381,000 barrels at 26.53 million.
Ukraine said any of its corn had yet to be planted.
Russia stated it would allow ships to leave Ukrainian ports, but didn’t mention incoming vessels. However, Russia has laid anti-ship mines near the ports and destroyed much of the infrastructure.
