ICE Canada Review: Canola Up With Supply Concerns

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada
Oct. 19, 2012
Winnipeg – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts  closed mostly higher on Friday, as concerns over tightening supplies  and a weaker tone in the Canadian dollar provided support.
The gains in canola came despite the losses posted in CBOT  soybeans and soyoil. The independent strength was tied to solid  end-user demand, as concerns over tight supplies going forward had  the commercials looking to secure some canola while they still can,  said participants. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s market analysis branch  released updated supply/demand tables Thursday afternoon forecasting  canola stocks by the end of the current crop year at only 450,000  tonnes. That compares with their previous estimate of 675,000 and the  2011-12 carryout of 788,000. Anything under a million is usually  considered tight, according to industry participants.

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Weakness in the Canadian dollar, which was down by about three  quarters of a cent relative to its US counterpart, provided further  support for canola, as the softer currency helps crush margins  improve, and also makes exports more attractive.
However, the gains in canola were tempered by the softer tone  in most outside oilseed markets, including soybeans. Increased farmer  selling, as cash bids topping C$14 per bushel in parts of western  Canada encouraged some hedges, also slowed the upward move. As a  result, canola futures were well off their highs for the day by the  close.
About 15,594 canola contracts were traded on Friday, which  compares with Thursday when 19,350 contracts changed hands. Spreading  accounted for about 11,170 of the contracts traded.
Milling wheat futures were untraded, but were revised higher  after the close. Durum and barley futures were untraded and unchanged.Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

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