Abundant moisture, profitable grain prices and adequate fertilizer supplies should get farmers off to a good start this spring.
Fertilizer prices are comparable to last year but local conditions may alter availability, said Mike Chorlton of Saskferco.
The biggest challenge this spring may be stalled delivery because of floods and road bans coming early in rural municipalities.
“It’s always a challenge in the spring to get everything where people want it,” said Chorlton.
At Westco Fertilizer, Gene Rurak said prices may rise later in the season but overall his company doesn’t anticipate wild swings in costs or supply.
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“Pricing has stalled with no movement in the last few months. There may be some modest increases in the next few months.”
Supplies meet demand
The same scenario is evident throughout North America where supplies are meeting demand, said Harry Baumes, of the American agricultural analysis firm WEFA from his Philadelphia-area office.
Fertilizer use may shift with the recent United States Department of Agriculture forecast of planting intentions. About seven percent more soybeans than last year are expected to be planted on 69 million acres. Soybeans don’t require as much fertilizer as some cereals so that could alter supplies, said Baumes.
High prices and supply shortages in the last two years spurred production and inspired construction of new plants.
There are six new plants in the works in the United States, one in Canada, 10 in the Middle East, as well as several in China. New nitrogen plants under construction in North America will churn out 1.8 million tonnes more than current production.
A report from Cargill Ltd. estimated North American ammonia, urea and phosphate production will go up by five, 10 and five percent respectively.
On a global basis, more fertilizer plants are being built to meet the demand for more seeded acreage for greater food production.
Pierre Louis, executive secretary of the International Fertilizer Association, said there is a worldwide demand for nitrogen.
Growth of nitrogen consumption exceeds forecasts every year, while phosphorus and potassium demands are below expectations, he said at the recent Canadian Fertilizer Institute meeting in Calgary.
Fertilizer supply and food production are government priorities in China and India. Both countries are increasing fertilizer consumption, said Carroll Brunthaver, president and chief executive officer of Sparks Companies Inc., based in Tennessee.
He told the fertilizer institute that sales growth depends on increased global demand for meat, milk and eggs, particularly in China.
Brunthaver said more people are eating higher protein foods such as meat and the animals that produce it will need more feed grains. Consequently, farmers need more fertilizer to improve field productivity.
He said the Chinese will need 75 million tonnes of grain to feed their livestock in 10 years if meat consumption rises as anticipated.
There is no way they can do that without more fertilizer applications, Brunthaver said.
