CALGARY – When Nebraska weatherman Art Douglas visited Calgary Jan. 12 the temperature was 12 C.
Overnight, the warm chinook winds shifted north and the mercury took a free fall to -20 C.
Luckily for him, Douglas isn’t too concerned with trying to make short-term predictions in such unpredictable conditions. The Creighton University climatologist attended the Alberta Cattle Feeders Association annual meeting to give his annual long-term weather forecast and its possible affects on planting intentions and markets.
Douglas’s service bases its weather charts on global ocean temperatures and past climate patterns because weather systems repeat themselves in cycles.
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This January, ocean waters have been warm off the coasts of California and Japan and cold off the Gulf of Alaska. That means warm weather in California and the southwestern United States.
If this continues, he expects warm weather this spring throughout western North America, a drought in Mexico, the southern Plains and the cornbelt of the U.S. These dry conditions will affect grazing conditions and allow for early spring planting.
Southwestern Canada can expect a summer similar to last year.
Unusual North American weather patterns during the last four years are partly due to anomalies like the extended El Nino system that stretched from 1991-95.
Debris blocks sun
“We’ve never seen four years in a row of repeated El Nino conditions,” he said.
It lasted longer than average because of volcanic eruptions in 1992 which left considerable amounts of debris in the atmosphere and blocked out the warmth of the sun.
El Nino is a worldwide condition where ocean temperatures change along with a back-and-forth shift in trade winds and pressure areas. With weak pressure systems and little wind, El Nino emerges.
An “anti-El Nino” occurred from 1987-89 resulting in drought. Douglas said this year is the beginning of another anti-El Nino period where water at the equator is cold.
A warm water pool moving toward western South America could stop the anti-El Nino. If storms don’t wipe the pool out, it could spread up the coast to the equator and change weather patterns, ending the anticipated drought in the American midwest.
If the El Nino re-occurs, Western Canada could see a dry fall and winter in 1996.
